2446 Areba St · Houston, TX 77091

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1960 7,501 sqft lot $97/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rehab started but not finished. Roof recently added.

Key facts

• Roof recently added
• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• ROOF RECENTLY ADDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,187/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.18%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,737
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -50.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2604 Areba St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-5%)	2mo	$323,000	$211	80
7415 Dyer St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-1%)	4mo	$225,000	$142	66
2515 Garapan St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	6mo	$259,400	$173	66
6216 Carver Rd	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,709 (+7%)	2mo	$300,000	$176	65
6522 Old Olive Tree Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,458 (-9%)	5mo	$304,990	$209	64
6547 Sealey St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,648 (+3%)	2mo	$350,000	$212	58
6551 Sealey St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,648 (+3%)	4mo	$299,000	$181	58
7423 Emma Lou St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	55
6706 Greenhurst St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,374 (-14%)	6mo	$119,000	$87	53
6058 Cebra Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,762 (+10%)	0mo	$359,900	$204	51
6052 Cebra Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,762 (+10%)	0mo	$349,900	$199	50
2210 Mansfield	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,802 (+12%)	2mo	$349,900	$194	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,505
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $30,659
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77091

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 675
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6615 Goldspier St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,150	$1.16	22d	1	0.14mi
7008 Emma Lou St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$3,000	$1.86	19d	1	0.33mi
7504 Carver Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,500	$1.48	5d	1	0.58mi
7200 T C Jester Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,550	$1.60	22d	9	0.66mi
7200 T C Jester Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,550	$1.41	3d	8	0.66mi
6555 Sealey St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,700	$1.50	24d	1	0.67mi
7903 Moon Beam St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1217	$1,700	$1.40	17d	1	0.76mi
8101 Venus St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	24d	1	0.92mi
8101 Venus St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,699	$1.24	24d	1	0.92mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	44d	1	0.93mi
5503 Bertellis Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	24d	1	1.12mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.15mi
2303 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1061	$1,145	$1.08	3d	3	1.16mi
7628 Inwood Hills Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,500	$1.41	44d	1	1.21mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	44d	1	1.25mi
5508 Oakmont Villas Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2199	$2,599	$1.18	44d	1	1.37mi
1200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,295	$1.38	3d	12	1.41mi
6240 Antoine Dr Unit 6273 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,432	$0.96	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $155,000 Active 52-char remark

    Show marketing remark (52 chars)

    Rehab started but not finished. Roof recently added.

16. 2026-01-06
    soldstatus
17. 2014-05-27
    soldstatus
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,048 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,048 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $3,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $4,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,728
• Household income: $35,432
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3210.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 45% Two or more races 15% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.19%
• Current HPI: 283.7523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,048 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.