111 Mountain Ash Dr · Barryville, NY 18458

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1987 1.19 ac lot $67/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

BACKING TO 20 PRIVATELY OWNED ACRES, YOUR PRIVATE 3-BED 2-BATH RETREAT WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW ROOF AND NEW APPLIANCES AWAITS IN HAPPY HOLLOW! Priced to sell and set at the end of a cul-de-sac, this charmer offers easy one-level living and access to an abundance of outdoor recreation, including hiking trails, skiing destinations, and the Delaware River as well as the eateries, shops, and cultural offerings of New York's Catskills region! This spacious three-bedroom, two-full-bath double-wide features a completely new kitchen that stands out as a true focal point of the home! It is thoughtfully finished with rich hickory cabinetry, striking hickory butcher block countertops, new overhead li

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New appliances
• Skiing destinations

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW APPLIANCES
• CUL-DE-SAC
• HIKING TRAILS
• SKIING DESTINATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Barryville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $139k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $84,561
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $242,282
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,443/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Schields Ln Shohola, PA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	2d	1	1.03mi
100 Richardson Ave Shohola, PA	3.0	1.0	1518	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-11
   status Active
3. 2026-01-11
   price $139,000
4. 2025-12-23
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-18
   listed $179,000 Active
6. 2009-11-09
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,443 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,443 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,443
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$125
• After-tax cash flow: $1,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Barryville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-01-11 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $139,000 PWMLS
• 2025-12-23 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $179,000 PWMLS
• 2009-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,443 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.