1107 Odessa Dr · Holly, MI 48442

$229,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1970 8,712 sqft lot Est $317k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled just minutes from the charm of downtown Holly, this home offers a setting that is difficult to find and easy to love. Positioned along a peaceful stream that feeds into Bevins Lake, the property is surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, creating a backyard experience that feels far removed from the hustle of everyday life. A spacious screened-in four-season room spans the back of the home and quickly becomes the star of the property. Whether you're enjoying your morning coffee while watching wildlife along the water, listening to the sounds of the river, or gathering with friends on summer evenings, this space allows you to enjoy the setting in every season. Just beyond, a patio and firepit area create the perfect backdrop for backyard barbecues, relaxing evenings, and making memories outdoors. Inside, the home offers solid bones and a functional layout ready for your personal touches. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, pantry storage, tile flooring, and unique stained-glass cabinet accents that add character and charm. The adjoining dining area offers plenty of space for gatherings and includes a bonus flex area ideal for a home office, reading nook, or hobby space. French doors add architectural interest and connect the living spaces seamlessly. The home offers four bedrooms with hardwood flooring and one-and-a-half baths, providing flexibility for families, guests, or work-from-home needs. A standout feature of the property is the oversized shed. One side has been finished with a loft and ceiling fan, making it ideal as a workshop, studio, hobby space, or retreat, while the other side provides excellent storage with built-in shelving already in place. For buyers looking for a property with character, a beautiful natural setting, and the opportunity to add their own vision over time, this Holly home offers a rare combination of location, lot, and potential.

Key facts

• Bonus flex area
• French doors
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS SCREENED-IN ROOM
• PATIO AND FIREPIT AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• STAINED-GLASS CABINET ACCENTS
• BONUS FLEX AREA
• FRENCH DOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Mid-level entry with steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1,749 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch; Creek on the property; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); No central air
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Washer; Nine total rooms; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Holly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#156 in MI, #3,930 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Holly Area School District (town): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #165 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Patterson Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 437 students, 57% FRL); Holly Middle School (math 25% / reading 54%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 55% FRL); Holly High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 1,023 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 36% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 20 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $192,618 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,569
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1106 Marion Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-10%)	4mo	$224,000	$142	75
3322 Herrington Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-2%)	9mo	$310,000	$181	70
15044 Burrows Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-2%)	1mo	$313,000	$182	68
15130 Western Valley Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-2%)	9mo	$285,000	$166	68
802 Richard St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+8%)	5mo	$249,900	$132	57
3802 Rolling Hills Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,000 (+14%)	2mo	$380,000	$190	56
372 Edge Brook Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,957 (+12%)	0mo	$363,985	$186	55
416 Hidden River Riv	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,957 (+12%)	1mo	$379,240	$194	53
376 Edge Brook Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,957 (+12%)	6mo	$353,490	$181	51
15105 Holly Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,579 (-10%)	8mo	$330,000	$209	50
4041 Grange Hall Rd Lot 12	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+9%)	10mo	$44,000	$23	45
205 Lakeview St	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+10%)	7mo	$330,000	$172	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-47,555
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-54,603
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48442

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,926 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,690/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $199,764

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-101	+0% $-165	+5% $-230	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-242	+0% $-165	+5% $-89	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-107	base $-165	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-285

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 Crescent Ave Holly, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	0.51mi
4261 Grange Hall Rd Holly, MI	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,284	$1.16	0d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,690 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,690 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$4,690
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,849
• − Management: −$1,849
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holly Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2618450
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,137
• Composite: 37.1/100
• National rank: #4496
• State rank: #165 of 540 in MI

Livability — Holly

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #3930

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 22,788
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,788
• Household income: $86,575
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.30%
• Current HPI: 227.7078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+257.8% since first listed

56 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $235,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $235,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-04 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-16 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-14 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-14 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-04 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-04 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-02 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-04-30 Coming Soon $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-04-30 Coming Soon $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-18 Listed $215,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-18 Listed $215,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-05 Listed $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-05 Listed $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-09-09 Listed $229,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-09 Listed $229,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $173,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-13 Sold (MLS) $173,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-07-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-06-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-28 Listed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-28 Listed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-16 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-16 Sold (MLS) $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-10-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-10-04 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-04 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-09-16 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-16 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-07-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-07-19 Listed $132,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-19 Listed $132,500 REALCOMP
• 1993-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,300 Public Records
• 1989-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,690 · +28.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.