28826 Golden Wheat Ct · Hockley, TX 77447

$242,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Private corner
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• PRIVATE CORNER
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $242,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,352.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $243k).
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,352
• List price: $242,990
• Delta: -14.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28806 Golden Wheat Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	1mo	$229,990	$174	97
16210 Domestic Dove Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	0mo	$246,990	$187	96
16114 Domestic Dove Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	4mo	$286,990	$218	91
28910 Bison Haven Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,318 (0%)	0mo	$209,991	$159	82
16819 Spotted Oak Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	1mo	$203,591	$154	70
16839 Spotted Oak Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	1mo	$218,990	$165	68
16846 Spotted Oak Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+0%)	2mo	$220,090	$166	66
28530 Golden Hay Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+7%)	3mo	$263,990	$187	54
16830 Spotted Oak Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	0mo	$238,990	$162	53
16850 Spotted Oak Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	0mo	$232,991	$158	53
16859 Spotted Oak Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+11%)	2mo	$270,990	$185	48
16827 Old Wagon Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+12%)	4mo	$278,990	$189	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-64,373
• Equity at exit: $43,740

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-96,354
• Equity at exit: $25,364

Cash invested: $82,138 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $248,490 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 35 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,538
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,400/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $271,531

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-49	+0% $-151	+5% $-252	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-250	+0% $-151	+5% $-52	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-76	base $-151	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,338
• Closing costs: $8,801
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	0.19mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.67mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC)Association amenities include playground, park, pool and trailsAnnual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: New construction residential home (under construction)Built in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision with a pond on the lotAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $242,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $242,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $242,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $242,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   remarks 600-char remark
6. 2026-08-03
   pricestatus $242,990 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 567-char remark
8. 2026-05-11
   listed $252,090 Active 567-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,432
• − Property taxes: −$4,400
• − Insurance: −$1,467
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,534
• Taxable loss: −$6,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Interior cleaning — A clean interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC)Association amenities include playground, park, pool and trailsAnnual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: New construction residential home (under construction)Built in 2026Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision with a pond on the lotAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $252,090 HARMLS