712 Vernon St · Rockdale, TX 76567

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 345 Days on market

Built 1957 8,960 sqft lot $67/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning canvas for one with vision. This 3BR ranch on a gorgeous large lot it ideal for adding charm to it's already existing character. Minutes away from Samsung's semiconductor factory in a serene location yet convenient drive to Austin. This is a win today and in the future.

Key facts

• Serene location
• Large lot
• Convenient drive

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• SERENE LOCATION
• CONVENIENT DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.6% in Rockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,040 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockdale ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #395 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rockdale Int (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 419 students, 76% FRL); Rockdale J H (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 316 students, 70% FRL); Rockdale H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 464 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 77 units permitted in Milam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Milam County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,407
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -55.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 E 1st St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+1%)	12mo	$176,900	$117	73
314 Pickel Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-0%)	16mo	$244,605	$164	64
220 E Belton Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+4%)	8mo	$230,000	$148	60
501 San Gabriel St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	6mo	$195,000	$134	59
943 E 3rd St	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,470 (-2%)	14mo	$250,000	$170	52
415 N Main St	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,598 (+7%)	3mo	$219,900	$138	51
304 Thrall Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-5%)	13mo	$209,180	$147	50
406 Pickel Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-7%)	21mo	$238,605	$172	49
413 Pickel Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,691 (+13%)	16mo	$256,075	$151	42
306 Hickory St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-12%)	11mo	$169,900	$129	41
623 N Main St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-15%)	3mo	$195,000	$153	37
724 Green St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,630 (+9%)	21mo	$175,000	$107	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,728
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $37,673
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76567

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $925

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $432	-5% $403	+0% $375	+5% $347	+10% $318
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $320	+0% $375	+5% $430	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $400	base $375	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
823 Hickory St Rockdale, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,650	$1.33	45d	1	0.74mi
622 Scarbrough St Rockdale, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$1,050	$1.16	0d	1	0.79mi
313 Mary St Rockdale, TX	3.0	1.0	902	$1,375	$1.52	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 332 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 331 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 330 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 327 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 326 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 325 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 324 DOM
18. 2025-07-11
    listed $100,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Stunning canvas for one with vision. This 3BR ranch on a gorgeous large lot it ideal for adding charm to it's already existing character. Minutes away from Samsung's semiconductor factory in a serene location yet convenient drive to Austin. This is a win today and in the future

19. 2025-07-11
    listed $100,000 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Stunning canvas for one with vision. This 3BR ranch on a gorgeous large lot it ideal for adding charm to it's already existing character. Minutes away from Samsung's semiconductor factory in a serene location yet convenient drive to Austin. This is a win today and in the future

20. 2025-07-11
    listed $100,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Stunning canvas for one with vision. This 3BR ranch on a gorgeous large lot it ideal for adding charm to it's already existing character. Minutes away from Samsung's semiconductor factory in a serene location yet convenient drive to Austin. This is a win today and in the future

21. 2025-06-09
    historical
22. 2025-06-09
    historical
23. 2025-04-23
    listed $100,000 Active
24. 2025-04-15
    status Active
25. 2025-04-10
    status Pending
26. 2025-03-29
    price $100,000
27. 2025-03-29
    price
28. 2025-03-15
    listed Active
29. 2024-12-16
    listed $125,000 Active
30. 2024-12-16
    listed Active
31. 2023-10-04
    historical
32. 2023-08-22
    historical Active Under Contract
33. 2023-08-22
    price $135,000
34. 2023-07-31
    status Pending
35. 2023-07-13
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$749
• After-tax cash flow: $3,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837590
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,586
• Composite: 34.64/100
• National rank: #5147
• State rank: #395 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rockdale

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1040
• US rank: #18508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockdale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,457

Population outlook (Milam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,051 people
• By 2030: 23,613 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 22,693 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 21,879 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 20,974 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 19,414 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Milam

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.3) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -57.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.3 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+49.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.12%
• Current HPI: 217.5536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-11 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $100,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-04-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-15 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-16 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2023-08-22 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $135,000 CTXMLS
• 2023-07-31 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $140,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.