1854 E Tijuana Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$252,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · Land · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot $172/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wake up to breathtaking mountain views in this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home. With a smart, well-planned layout that maximizes comfort and flow, every space feels just right--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and everything in between. text or call 520-841-2271 for a private showing.

Key facts

• Well-planned layout
• Mountain views
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED
• WELL-PLANNED LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-351 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $253k implies a 1165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,871 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,405
• List price: $252,999
• Delta: -1.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $115,452
• Equity at exit: $227,922

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $357,629
• Equity at exit: $491,521

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $202,189

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1859 Tijuana Ct Rio Rico, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	1d	1	0.05mi
1878 Circulo Girasol Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,700	$1.07	1d	1	0.11mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	10d	1	0.68mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	1d	1	1.04mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,999 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,999 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,999 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,999 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,999 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,999 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,999 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricestatusdays on market $252,999 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active Contingent 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active Contingent 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active Contingent 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $255,000 Active Contingent 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $255,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Wake up to breathtaking mountain views in this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home. With a smart, well-planned layout that maximizes comfort and flow, every space feels just right--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and everything in between. text or call 520-841-2271 for a private showing.

16. 2025-11-06
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$8,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,103
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1175.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $133 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.