9420 US Highway 301 Unit 8B-016 · Dade City, FL 33525

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $72/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 2024 home is built to last with Wind Zone II construction and boasts high-quality materials and craftsmanship throughout. Low-E insulated glass windows are designed to keep you comfortable year-round while being energy-efficient. The exterior includes vinyl lap siding and a 25-year algae-resistant roof for long-lasting reliability. The home also comes equipped with modern amenities like a Whirlpool stainless steel electric range, refrigerator with ice maker, and stylish ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Inside, you'll find spacious rooms with seamless drywall, deluxe cove and baseboard trim, and plenty of closet space with built-in shelving.

Key facts

• Vinyl lap siding
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• WIND ZONE II CONSTRUCTION
• LOW-E INSULATED GLASS WINDOWS
• VINYL LAP SIDING
• 25-YEAR ALGAE-RESISTANT ROOF
• REFRIGERATOR WITH ICE MAKER
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.5% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.08%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,813
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -55.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38710 Townsend Rd	1.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+4%)	4mo	$125,000	$91	50
37466 Phelps Rd	1.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+6%)	5mo	$310,000	$221	45
38668 Ferm Cir	1.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,307 (-1%)	14mo	$257,000	$197	43
8445 Angela Ct	1.29mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-7%)	14mo	$290,000	$235	42
8425 Saint Giles Ct	1.42mi	2/2.0	1,014 (-23%)	3mo	$260,000	$256	38
38684 Ferm Cir	1.42mi	2/2.0	1,195 (-10%)	14mo	$275,000	$230	38
8327 Jacqueline Ct	1.43mi	2/2.0	1,014 (-23%)	3mo	$250,000	$247	38
38847 Centennial Rd	1.07mi	2/1.0	1,441 (+9%)	17mo	$266,000	$185	32
10136 Dusty Hill Loop	1.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (+25%)	9mo	$365,000	$222	27
8443 Saint Giles Ct	1.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (+12%)	16mo	$330,000	$224	27
10239 Dusty Hill Loop	1.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+20%)	11mo	$325,000	$204	26
8623 Micarta Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-13%)	19mo	$299,999	$260	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $20,049
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $63,226
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active
• Median asking: $94,900 ($68/sqft)
• Median days on market: 195 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +139.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $621	-5% $588	+0% $555	+5% $523	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $495	+0% $555	+5% $616	+10% $677
Rate	-1.0pp $603	-0.5pp $580	base $555	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	120d	1	1.26mi
10721 U.S. 98 Unit Na Dade City, FL	1.0	1.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	8d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (listing provided by Zillow)
• Financial info: Listed as Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric heating via heat pump
• Home design: Spec home — Plan name: The InvernessSingle-level unit (unit/address indicates an individual unit in a multi-unit building)
• Exterior features: Located on US Highway 301 in Dade City

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,320 sq ft)

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $94,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $94,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $94,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $94,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-07-05
   days on market $94,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-07-03
   days on market $94,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-07-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-06-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 16 DOM
19. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 15 DOM
20. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 14 DOM
21. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 13 DOM
22. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
23. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 7 DOM
24. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
25. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
26. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
28. 2026-06-02
    listed $94,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $5,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $5,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2024 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and high-quality materials. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's appeal and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price available (listing provided by Zillow)
• Financial info: Listed as Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric heating via heat pump
• Home design: Spec home — Plan name: The InvernessSingle-level unit (unit/address indicates an individual unit in a multi-unit building)
• Exterior features: Located on US Highway 301 in Dade City

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,320 sq ft)