191 Lemon Tree Cir · Vacaville, CA 95687

$195,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition $136/sqft · 13% above area Est $173k · 13% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1977
• Listed 52 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease of $877
• HOA & community: No HOA; Senior community; Park managed by Lemon Tree Management

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Original condition
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufactured home (Ramada by Skyline)
• Exterior features: Located in a manufactured home park; Land lease for the space

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub and shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room fireplace with insert; Dining room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $710 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.0% in Vacaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in CA, #3,156 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Vacaville Unified (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 1,400 in CA (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cooper Elementary (720 students, 41% FRL); Vaca Pena Middle (689 students, 53% FRL); Will C. Wood High (1,670 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,635 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.57%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,652
• List price: $195,500
• Delta: 13.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 Lemon Tree Cir	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$110,000	$76	94
76 Lemon Tree Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$90	92
173 Lemon Tree Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$180,000	$125	90
183 Lemon Tree Cir	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$183,000	$127	84
199 Lemon Tree Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$158,000	$118	82
22 Lemon Tree Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$239,000	$166	81
174 Lemon Tree Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$199,000	$148	80
71 Lemon Tree Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$140,000	$104	78
176 Lemon Tree Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	7mo	$186,500	$118	76
187 Lemon Tree Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	13mo	$232,000	$151	69
137 Lemon Tree Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$189,000	$151	68
117 Lemon Tree Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	14mo	$219,000	$168	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,941
• Equity at exit: $29,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $34,021
• Equity at exit: $16,903

Cash invested: $54,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95687

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,025
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,932/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $195,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $778	+0% $710	+5% $643	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $607	+0% $710	+5% $813	+10% $916
Rate	-1.0pp $809	-0.5pp $760	base $710	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,875
• Closing costs: $5,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Lassen Cir Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1043	$2,150	$2.06	25d	1	0.44mi
188 Glacier Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,750	$2.00	15d	1	0.58mi
132 Bryce Way Vacaville, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$2,350	$1.82	46d	1	0.65mi
3500 Harbison Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,768	$2.67	15d	11	0.91mi
100 Summerfield Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,535	$2.82	15d	6	1.09mi
1200 Allison Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,866	$2.97	15d	15	1.19mi
784 Arabian Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1804	$3,300	$1.83	45d	1	1.20mi
1187 Notre Dame Cir Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.5	1807	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	1.25mi
555 Elmira Rd Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,325	$2.83	15d	1	1.26mi
1000 Allison Dr Vacaville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,100	$3.13	15d	15	1.34mi
1407 Callen St Unit C Vacaville, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$2,000	$2.11	45d	1	1.36mi
245 Christine Dr Vacaville, CA	3.0	2.0	1533	$3,400	$2.22	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,500 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,500 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,500 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,500 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,500 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,500 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,500 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,500 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,500 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,500 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,500 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,500 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,500 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,500 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,500 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $195,500 Active 364-char remark
19. 2023-02-08
    status Pending 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

20. 2023-02-08
    soldstatus $153,000 Closed 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

21. 2023-02-08
    soldstatus $153,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

22. 2023-01-13
    historical Contingent (No Show) 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

23. 2022-12-29
    listed $160,000 Active 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

24. 2022-12-29
    listed $160,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Spacious Mobile home in Vacaville. This is an age restricted Park. Two bedroom, 2 bath, gas fireplace, laminate flooring throughout. Lots of citrus trees grapefruit, lemon and orange. Park has pool, spa and clubhouse. You will love this quant community. Shed's to be removed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,951
• − Property taxes: −$2,932
• − Insurance: −$978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$5,687
• Taxable income: $5,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $7,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, significantly impacting its value. Painting the exterior and updating the kitchen would be the most impactful improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering
• Major exterior paint — Peeling and faded
• Major interior paint — Worn and outdated
• Minor kitchen cabinets — Slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and cleanliness
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling and faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$45,500–153,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and cleanliness ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes and increases functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vacaville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640590
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $71,383
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #6877
• State rank: #522 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vacaville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3156

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vacaville, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 109,591
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,390
• Household income: $109,566
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.59%
• Current HPI: 268.0777
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+22.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $195,500 BAREIS
• 2023-02-08 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-02-08 Sold (MLS) $153,000 BAREIS
• 2023-01-13 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2022-12-29 Listed $160,000 BAREIS