1410 E Duval St · Watertown, FL 32025

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1945 1.31 ac lot Est $180k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great location near downtown Lake City, FL. This property is loaded with potential. Existing residence on the property has great bones as a fixer upper. Could be a residence or a rental (this area is in short supply of rentals!) Large lot. County has zoned this property commercial use also. (Per Columbia County - is able to stay in use as residential or can be used commercial)

Key facts

• Large lot
• Zoned commercial use
• 1.31 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• ZONED COMMERCIAL USE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CI; Subdivision: Morningside Heights; Directions: From Lake City take US 90 (Duval St) East. Property is on right just past Eloise Ave.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-story residential property
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Shingle roof; Approximately 1.308-acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans (cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $180k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,335 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.45%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $180,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 SE Magnolia Loop	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-2%)	4mo	$245,655	$154	59
195 SE Emma Pl	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,748 (+8%)	4mo	$232,000	$133	57
1871 SE Baya Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-3%)	10mo	$175,000	$111	56
231 SE Golf Club Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (+4%)	6mo	$119,000	$70	54
492 SE Lomond Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,390 (-14%)	6mo	$112,500	$81	54
443 SE Melrose Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-5%)	18mo	$183,000	$118	52
211 NE Labelle Ter	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,726 (+6%)	9mo	$85,000	$49	50
993 SE Putnam St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-12%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	48
176 SE Dekle Way	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,390 (-14%)	3mo	$145,000	$104	47
268 NE Anderson Ter	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-13%)	6mo	$125,000	$88	42
342 NE Anderson Ter	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,449 (-11%)	16mo	$92,500	$64	40
132 SE Tribble St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+11%)	3mo	$274,900	$153	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $112,532
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $319,868
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,464

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 379-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $179,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $2,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+95.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $179,900 NFMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2025-04-17 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $179,900 NFMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $189,900 NFMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listed $134,900 NFMLS
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $139,900 NFMLS
• 2023-12-27 Listed $144,900 NFMLS
• 2023-09-20 Listed $149,900 NFMLS
• 2023-08-17 Delisted — NFMLS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $159,900 NFMLS
• 2023-05-22 Price Changed $159,000 NFMLS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $159,900 NFMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $169,900 NFMLS
• 2022-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.