Is 1040 Selene Sky Dr in Fulshear, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.4% cap rate and $-512/mo modeled cash flow at a $269,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1040 Selene Sky Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,456/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.72

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.8/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$269,990

1040 Selene Sky Dr · Fulshear, TX 77423

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,107 sqft lot 2-car garage $148/mo HOA · 6% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Carson floor plan offers an impressive 1,818 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, featuring 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This single-story home perfectly balances spacious gathering areas with private retreats, making it ideal for families of all sizes. The open-concept layout connects the kitchen, dining, and family room, creating a bright and welcoming space that's perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The modern kitchen boasts generous counter space, abundant cabinetry, and a convenient island overlooking the living area, allowing for effortless interaction while cooking or hosting. The owner's suite is privately located at the rear of the home, offering a peaceful escape complete with a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bath featuring dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Four additional bedrooms provide ample space for children, guests, or a home office, ensuring flexibility to suit any lifestyle. A separate laundry room, plentiful storage options, and a well-designed flow throughout add convenience and efficiency. With its spacious layout, open living concept, and smart use of space, the Carson floor plan delivers the perfect combination of comfort, functionality, and modern style for today's active families.

Key facts

Spacious family area
Smart home package
Open single story

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-512 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (9.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fulshear — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $245,598 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 4.45%
Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $333,490
List price: $269,990
Delta: -17.84%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.11mi	5/2.0	1,942 (+3%)	3mo	$279,990	$144	87
3037 Duskshine Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+7%)	0mo	$255,990	$127	74
1016 Star Skye Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (+2%)	1mo	$330,800	$173	73
1040 Star Skye Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (+2%)	2mo	$341,040	$178	70
3040 Helios Haven Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,041 (+8%)	4mo	$334,990	$164	70
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+8%)	2mo	$322,670	$159	69
3100 Duskshine Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+7%)	1mo	$248,991	$124	68
3000 Duskshine Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+7%)	4mo	$336,990	$167	68
3005 Helios Hvn	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+8%)	3mo	$314,670	$155	68
6414 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+7%)	4mo	$349,990	$174	67
1113 Sunlit Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-3%)	4mo	$313,990	$172	63
1084 Sunlit Cir	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,012 (+7%)	3mo	$309,900	$154	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.3%
Equity multiple: -0.00×
Total profit: $-93,747
Equity at exit: $49,724

10-year hold

IRR: -57.3%
Equity multiple: -0.62×
Total profit: $-150,955
Equity at exit: $28,834

Cash invested: $93,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 87 active · 38 under contract
Months of supply: 20.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $328,990 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1404
Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,456 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,749
Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,002/yr
Insurance: −$139
HOA: −$148
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
Net cashflow: $-512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,105

Max offer price $259,339

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-282	-5% $-397	+0% $-512	+5% $-628	+10% $-743
Rent	-10% $-706	-5% $-609	+0% $-512	+5% $-415	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-344	-0.5pp $-428	base $-512	+0.5pp $-599	+1.0pp $-687

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $83,372
Closing costs: $10,005
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Sunterra Lakes POAAnnual association feeCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built by D.R. Horton2026 constructionBrick and cement siding
Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandBreakfast barPantryQuartz countertops
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 17 x 13Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 10Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 10Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 10Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 10Total rooms: 6
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanitySoaking tubSeparate shower
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room combinationPantryQuartz countertopsSoaking tubSeparate showerKitchen/dining combinationLiving/dining areaProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $269,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-23

pricedays on market $269,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $273,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $273,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $273,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $273,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $273,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $273,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $273,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $273,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $273,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $273,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $273,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $273,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $294,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $294,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $294,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $294,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $294,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $294,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $294,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $294,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $294,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $294,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $294,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $294,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $294,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $294,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $294,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-18

price $294,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $299,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $299,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $299,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $299,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-15

price $299,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $300,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $300,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $300,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $300,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $300,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $300,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $300,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $300,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $300,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $300,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $300,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $300,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $300,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $300,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $300,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,472
− Mortgage interest: −$18,681
− Property taxes: −$5,002
− Insurance: −$1,667
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
− Management: −$2,358
− HOA: −$1,776
− Depreciation: −$9,702
Taxable loss: −$12,072

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,897
After-tax cash flow: $-3,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of living space and privacy, making it ideal for families. Potential buyers may appreciate updates to the interior walls and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers ↑
Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

Score: 69/100
State rank: #430
US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
City population: 41,324
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-23 Listed $300,990 HARMLS
2026-06-17 Listed $300,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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