392 Melissa Dr · Whitlock, TN 38251

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1983 1.21 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! CASH SALE ONLY. SELLER IS SELLING AS IS. This 2 bedroom home sits on half acre lot and comes with SECOND NEXTDOOR LOT too. A WELL & , septic system in place and has beautiful backyard. HOME IS IN SALVAGE CONDITION. Once cleaned up, these lots would be an amazing homesite and close to Paris and quiet neighborhood too. Boots are recommend to be worn while walking this property. GRASS HAS NOT BEEN CUT HERE. Images with cut grass were from 2 years ago. COMES WITH ALL INTERIOR furnishings. SOLD AS IS.

Key facts

• 1.21 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Creekwood subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Gravel parking surface
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built with residential construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Wood fencing; Paved road access; 1.21-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window-unit cooling
• Interior features: Other appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Henry County (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #60 of 139 in TN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.76%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $54,199
• Equity at exit: $35,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.00×
• Total profit: $134,066
• Equity at exit: $77,517

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38251

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $253/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $313

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $39,900 Active
3. 2024-08-06
   price $49,900
4. 2024-07-17
   listed $54,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $253 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $283 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$3/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$253
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$920
• − Management: −$920
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,394
• After-tax cash flow: $4,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 4701830
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,770
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7457
• State rank: #60 of 139 in TN

Livability — Whitlock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,492

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,750 people
• By 2030: 31,277 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 30,064 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 28,675 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 25,767 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 22,318 · -29.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.8% · R 77.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.83%
• Current HPI: 292.0181
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — TVAR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $39,900 TVAR
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $49,900 TVAR
• 2024-07-17 Listed $54,900 TVAR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $253 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.