2739 Oyster Creek Bnd · Oyster Creek, TX 77541

$144,629

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 424 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $110/sqft · at area comps Est $148k · at est. · waterfront ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Water views
• Proximity to park
• One acre

Tags

• ONE ACRE
• WATER VIEWS
• OYSTER CREEK
• PROXIMITY TO PARK
• ACCESS TO FREEPORT BEACH
• ACCESS TO SURFSIDE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 0.8% in Oyster Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,483 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Velasco El (math 40% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 290 students, 91% FRL); Freeport Int (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 425 students, 86% FRL); Brazosport H S (math 40% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 948 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 53% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,273 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,428
• List price: $144,629
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Duncan Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+3%)	12mo	$145,000	$107	50
2625 Duncan Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,198 (-9%)	12mo	$150,000	$125	42
122 Robinson Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-8%)	19mo	$155,000	$129	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,762
• Equity at exit: $21,565

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $38,326
• Equity at exit: $12,505

Cash invested: $40,496 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77541

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$758
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $427

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $144,629

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $468	+0% $427	+5% $386	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $357	+0% $427	+5% $497	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $464	base $427	+0.5pp $389	+1.0pp $351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,157
• Closing costs: $4,339
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,629 Active 424 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,629 Active 421 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,629 Active 420 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,629 Active 419 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,629 Active 418 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,629 Active 416 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,629 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,629 Active 411 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,629 Active 410 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,629 Active 407 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,629 Active 406 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,629 Active 405 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,629 Active 404 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,629 Active 403 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    price $144,629 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2026-02-02
    price $149,629 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-11-12
    status Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2025-10-29
    status Pending 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2025-07-08
    price $168,629 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

20. 2025-04-23
    listed $173,629 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    WONDERFUL WATER VIEW! We just listed this home that is on ONE ACRE NEAR SURFSIDE BEACH! You will like this charming home nestled on an expansive ONE ACRE lot in the picturesque Freeport area! Enjoy breathtaking VIEWS OF THE WATER as this property is situated along Oyster Creek. With proximity to Oyster Creek Municipal Park and Brazoria National Wildlife Refuge, nature enthusiasts will delight in the abundance of outdoor activities available. Convenient access to Freeport Beach and Surfside Beach ensures endless opportunities for coastal adventures and relaxation. Sold As Is, this property presents a wonderful opportunity to customize and make it your own. Don't miss out on the chance to own a slice of tranquility in this idyllic waterfront setting. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

21. 2002-04-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,647 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,594/yr (+$133/mo · 151.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,101
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$4,207
• Taxable income: $2,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$715
• After-tax cash flow: $4,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oyster Creek

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1483
• US rank: #25420

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Creek, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,996
• Household income: $66,507
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 38% Two or more races 23% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.12%
• Current HPI: 265.9301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $144,629 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $149,629 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $168,629 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $173,629 HARMLS
• 2002-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · -54.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.