22899 Byron Rd #77 · Crestline, CA 92325

$174,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 489 Days on market

Built 2023 $155/sqft · 88% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the highly desired family park of Valley of Enchantment offers the perfect mix of modern comfort and mountain charm. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, it provides lasting quality and peace of mind. The bright, open floor plan features vinyl sheet flooring, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a spacious kitchen with new appliances. The main bedroom includes a large walk-in closet, creating the ideal retreat. With its stylish finishes and inviting design, this home is a fantastic starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent is $1,049 per month.

Key facts

• Carpeted rooms
• Main bedroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• MAIN BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEW APPLIANCES
• CARPETED ROOMS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.9% in Crestline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#805 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools D-, crime F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 489 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 489 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,500
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: 88.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22899 Byron Rd #19	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-5%)	4mo	$65,000	$61	76
22899 Byron Rd #81	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	2mo	$120,000	$125	70
22899 Byron Rd #105	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-7%)	22mo	$133,900	$129	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $21
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $47,464
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92325

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,681

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $444	+0% $384	+5% $324	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $298	+0% $384	+5% $469	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $428	base $384	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22858 Lupin Ln Cedarpines Park, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	0d	1	0.20mi
686 Ca-138 Crestline, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,800	$2.50	5d	1	0.83mi
767 Woodland Rd Unit 1 Crestline, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	4d	1	0.87mi
794 Woodland Rd Crestline, CA	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,400	$1.02	18d	1	0.95mi
23654 Lake Dr Crestline, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,995	$2.77	0d	1	1.05mi
23855 Zuger Dr Unit B Crestline, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,995	$1.53	20d	1	1.24mi
23882 Springwater Rd Crestline, CA	3.0	1.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	20d	1	1.29mi
198 Mile High Rd Crestline, CA	3.0	2.5	850	$2,300	$2.71	0d	1	1.33mi
979 Venus Way Crestline, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$2,300	$2.88	0d	1	1.36mi
23920 Scenic Dr Crestline, CA	2.0	1.0	770	$1,795	$2.33	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,000 Active 489 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 486 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 485 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 484 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 483 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 481 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 480 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 477 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 476 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 475 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,000 Active 472 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 471 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 470 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 697-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 469 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 468 DOM
17. 2025-08-19
    price $174,000 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    This newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the highly desired family park of Valley of Enchantment offers the perfect mix of modern comfort and mountain charm. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, it provides lasting quality and peace of mind. The bright, open floor plan features vinyl sheet flooring, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a spacious kitchen with new appliances. The main bedroom includes a large walk-in closet, creating the ideal retreat. With its stylish finishes and inviting design, this home is a fantastic starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent is $1,049 per month.

18. 2025-02-03
    listed $173,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    This newly built 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the highly desired family park of Valley of Enchantment offers the perfect mix of modern comfort and mountain charm. Built with durable 2x4 construction and a 60 lb. roof load for snow, it provides lasting quality and peace of mind. The bright, open floor plan features vinyl sheet flooring, cozy carpeted bedrooms, and a spacious kitchen with new appliances. The main bedroom includes a large walk-in closet, creating the ideal retreat. With its stylish finishes and inviting design, this home is a fantastic starter for families or first-time buyers seeking quality and value. Space rent is $1,049 per month.

19. 2025-01-08
    historical
20. 2024-12-28
    price $173,000
21. 2024-09-17
    price $174,000
22. 2024-02-14
    price $189,900
23. 2024-01-25
    price $199,900
24. 2023-11-09
    price $189,900
25. 2023-08-10
    listed $199,900 Active
26. 2007-03-30
    historical
27. 2006-10-17
    listed $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥89°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $2,048
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$491
• After-tax cash flow: $4,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Crestline

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #805
• US rank: #22821

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestline, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 9,065
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,065
• Household income: $70,563
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 20% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.88%
• Current HPI: 352.6512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1188.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $174,000 SDMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listed $173,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-12-28 Price Changed $173,000 SDMLS
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $174,000 SDMLS
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $189,900 SDMLS
• 2024-01-25 Price Changed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2023-11-09 Price Changed $189,900 SDMLS
• 2023-08-10 Listed $199,900 SDMLS
• 2007-03-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-10-17 Listed $13,500 CRMLS