15841 W Flint Rock Rd · Blackgum, OK 74451

$59,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1980 0.35 ac lot $16/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Embrace the iconic A-frame lifestyle in Tenkiller Harbor. This 953 sq ft (per CH) gem offers a rare 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom layout perched on three expansive lots. While it needs some modern updates, the bones and the stunning lake views are already there. It’s a blank canvas for a savvy buyer looking to design their ultimate custom retreat without the premium price tag. Pool, park, boat ramp, and trails included with HOA.

Key facts

• Stunning lake views
• Trails
• Pool

Tags

• STUNNING LAKE VIEWS
• THREE EXPANSIVE LOTS
• POOL
• BOAT RAMP
• TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Less than 1 mile to water (Tenkiller Lake)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual association fee of $195; Community amenities: clubhouse, park, pool, guard, trails

Exterior

• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (private); Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Faces north; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding; Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Balcony; Porch; Dirt driveway; Shed(s); Mature trees; Boat ramp/lift access; Views (has view)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Plywood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central heating; Electric heating; Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Skylights; Vinyl window trim
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($890 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#725 in OK) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Tahlequah (town): math 27% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #109 of 270 in OK (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Es (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #210 of 845 statewide, top 25%, 495 students, 0% FRL); Tahlequah Ms (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #77 of 345 statewide, top 22%, 676 students, 0% FRL); Tahlequah Hs (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 447 statewide, top 27%, 1,300 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Cherokee County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $183; list at $60k implies a 32632% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.16%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,655
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15809 W Rifle Barrell Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	888 (-7%)	7mo	$120,000	$135	75
35839 S Wildwood Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	864 (-9%)	22mo	$81,500	$94	52
15879 W 933	0.64mi	2/1.0	864 (-9%)	22mo	$155,000	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $35,768
• Equity at exit: $36,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $90,126
• Equity at exit: $64,752

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74451

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $463/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $498

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $327	+0% $310	+5% $293	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $275	+0% $310	+5% $345	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $325	base $310	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $59,900 Active
18. 2008-06-17
    soldstatus $183

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $463 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$463
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$855
• − Management: −$855
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $2,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$701
• After-tax cash flow: $3,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahlequah
• NCES district ID: 4029380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $32,990
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8393
• State rank: #109 of 270 in OK

Livability — Blackgum

• Score: 38/100
• State rank: #725
• US rank: #27442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,816

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,747 people
• By 2030: 53,481 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 56,503 · +9.2%
• By 2050: 59,370 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 67,178 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 70,900 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Native American 27% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 32.7% · R 65.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Current HPI: 256.0707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $59,900 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2008-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $183 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $463 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.