2256 Hill Rd · Phelps, WI 54554

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 726 sqft · Other · 129 Days on market

3,920 sqft lot $138/sqft · 16% below area Est $119k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of downtown Phelps, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a smart, functional layout with efficient, low-maintenance living. The home has a strong rental history, making it a great opportunity for those seeking investment potential or a place to call their own. Recent updates include a newer steel roof and a furnace just 2 years old, helping keep maintenance simple and predictable. Conveniently located near local amenities, recreation, and year-round Northwoods activities. Don’t miss your chance to take a look.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($613/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Phelps School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #302 of 426 in WI (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 359 units permitted in Vilas County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Vilas County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $82,589 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,369
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $45,978
• Equity at exit: $77,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $130,982
• Equity at exit: $155,725

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54554

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $79	+0% $51	+5% $23	+10% $-5
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $18	+0% $51	+5% $84	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $77	base $51	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $110,000 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Located in the heart of downtown Phelps, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a smart, functional layout with efficient, low-maintenance living. The home has a strong rental history, making it a great opportunity for those seeking investment potential or a place to call their own. Recent updates include a newer steel roof and a furnace just 2 years old, helping keep maintenance simple and predictable. Conveniently located near local amenities, recreation, and year-round Northwoods activities. Don’t miss your chance to take a look.

18. 2026-02-11
    listed $120,000 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Located in the heart of downtown Phelps, this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a smart, functional layout with efficient, low-maintenance living. The home has a strong rental history, making it a great opportunity for those seeking investment potential or a place to call their own. Recent updates include a newer steel roof and a furnace just 2 years old, helping keep maintenance simple and predictable. Conveniently located near local amenities, recreation, and year-round Northwoods activities. Don’t miss your chance to take a look.

19. 2024-05-03
    status Active
20. 2024-05-03
    price $83,900
21. 2024-03-13
    listed $93,900 Active
22. 2022-10-04
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 2022-08-25
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 164.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$793
• − Management: −$793
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$266
• After-tax cash flow: $879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phelps School District
• NCES district ID: 5511710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,803
• Composite: 33.79/100
• National rank: #10394
• State rank: #302 of 426 in WI

Livability — Phelps

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,099

Population outlook (Vilas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,499 people
• By 2030: 19,683 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 17,559 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 15,407 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 13,010 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 10,937 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 6% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vilas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.0% · R 61.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.0pp toward R · 2008: -4.1pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+21.9 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.1 2008: R+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.25%
• Current HPI: 232.9527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $110,000 GNMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 GNMLS
• 2024-05-03 Relisted — GNMLS
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $83,900 GNMLS
• 2024-03-13 Listed $93,900 GNMLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GNMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listed $70,000 GNMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.