4934 Marcona Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$173,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $146/sqft · 31% below area Est $252k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Godwin El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 587 students, 65% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,339 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,490
• List price: $173,999
• Delta: -31.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5240 Cinnamon Ln	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+6%)	2mo	$213,999	$169	53
480 Lake Erie Dr	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+5%)	8mo	$235,000	$188	51
1140 Laguna Ln	0.80mi	3/2.0	1,291 (+8%)	2mo	$239,990	$186	50
3016 County Road 743	1.22mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+6%)	12mo	$200,000	$159	46
4914 Marcona Ln	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-13%)	2mo	$170,999	$166	41
1144 Laguna Ln	0.79mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+20%)	1mo	$259,990	$183	39
5232 Cinnamon Ln	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+18%)	2mo	$215,999	$153	39
416 Bower Dr	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+18%)	8mo	$210,824	$149	33
414 Bower Dr	1.21mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+18%)	8mo	$201,424	$144	33
523 Summit Pass Ln	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+24%)	11mo	$279,999	$189	31
10333 County Road 491	1.23mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+23%)	11mo	$665,000	$455	30
413 Gallop Dr	1.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (-24%)	10mo	$115,000	$126	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-14,386
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,067
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $216,999 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 6 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +33.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1749
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$217 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $173,999

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $364	+0% $304	+5% $244	+10% $184
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $229	+0% $304	+5% $379	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $348	base $304	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2583 FM 982 Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	73d	1	0.48mi
2583 Farm to Market Road 982 Unit A Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$1,345	$1.66	73d	1	0.48mi
1525 Farm to Market Road 982 Princeton, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1551	$2,332	$1.50	0d	31	0.69mi
120 Spurgeon St Princeton, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1536	$1,699	$1.11	1d	1	0.81mi
2768 Poppy Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1344	$1,500	$1.12	18d	1	1.14mi
843 Ozark Path Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$2,100	$1.68	93d	1	1.15mi
3033 County Road 743 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,250	$0.93	4d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $173,999 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,999 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,999 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,999 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,999 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,999 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,999 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,999 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,999 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,999 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $188,999 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,999 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,999 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,999 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,999 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $188,999 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-03-27
    price $181,999 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-03-24
    price $182,999 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2026-03-22
    listed $188,999 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,960–$17,880 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good potential for value increase with exterior painting and kitchen updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godwin El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $188,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $181,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $182,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $188,999 Zillow