4403 Belleview Rd · Bemus Point, NY 14712

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1949 5.00 ac lot $47/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for a project home with acreage? Take a look at this 1.5 story, three-bedroom, 1 bath home with attached enclosed one car garage on 5 acres in Ellery, NY (Bemus Point). The enclosed garage could be opened up and used again as a garage or finished off for a large family room. Enter the home from the front porch where you can cool off on those hot summer nights. Open the front door and go into the spacious foyer/formal dining room, to the left is the living room with large bay windows and access to the garage. There is a country kitchen with plenty of cupboard space, first floor laundry, small office area, first floor full bath, island, and breakfast room with sliding glass doors that lead out to a deck. There is also an enclosed back porch entry from the back of the home. DO NOT GO OUT THAT BACK DOOR. DECK IS NOT SAFE. ALSO, from the sliding glass doors, the deck is not safe DO NOT WALK ON THE DECK. OBEY ALL CAUTION SIGNS. There are cement steps under the deck that could be possibly reused. Upstairs the attic was finished into two sleeping spaces, with storage spaces. The partial basement houses the mechanicals, including water heater, furnace and sump pump. This home needs full renovation, but with a little imagination and elbow grease, it will be a wonderful all season home or vacation home get away. The barn has collapsed and needs to be demolished and removed per prior permit with the Town. That will be at the buyer's expense to do that. DO NOT GO IN OR AROUND THE BARN. OBEY CAUTION AND STAY OUT SIGNS. Seller will not make any repairs or turn utilities on, as this home will be sold AS IS WHERE IS. All offers to be made on PropOffers.com by the buyer's agent only. This home has wonderful views, an old fashioned church view from your kitchen window, poses as a live picture changing with the seasons. The backyard and side lot are partially wooded and make a great play area or view of the scenery. Close to all Chautauqua Lake Amenities, including the Chautauqua Institution, Mayville and its amenities, Lake Erie, Snowmobile trails, hunting lands, dining, shopping, antiques, and so much more. SCHEDULE YOUR PERSONALIZED TOUR TODAY.

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Breakfast room
• Small office area

Tags

• ATTACHED ENCLOSED GARAGE
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• SMALL OFFICE AREA
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 1.8% in Bemus Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.46%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,499
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -75.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4403 Belleview Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,588 (0%)	0mo	$66,500	$42	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $94,962
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.30×
• Total profit: $237,374
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,552/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $807

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-02-27
   listed $75,000 Active 2183-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2183 chars)

   Are you looking for a project home with acreage? Take a look at this 1.5 story, three-bedroom, 1 bath home with attached enclosed one car garage on 5 acres in Ellery, NY (Bemus Point). The enclosed garage could be opened up and used again as a garage or finished off for a large family room. Enter the home from the front porch where you can cool off on those hot summer nights. Open the front door and go into the spacious foyer/formal dining room, to the left is the living room with large bay windows and access to the garage. There is a country kitchen with plenty of cupboard space, first floor laundry, small office area, first floor full bath, island, and breakfast room with sliding glass doors that lead out to a deck. There is also an enclosed back porch entry from the back of the home. DO NOT GO OUT THAT BACK DOOR. DECK IS NOT SAFE. ALSO, from the sliding glass doors, the deck is not safe DO NOT WALK ON THE DECK. OBEY ALL CAUTION SIGNS. There are cement steps under the deck that could be possibly reused. Upstairs the attic was finished into two sleeping spaces, with storage spaces. The partial basement houses the mechanicals, including water heater, furnace and sump pump. This home needs full renovation, but with a little imagination and elbow grease, it will be a wonderful all season home or vacation home get away. The barn has collapsed and needs to be demolished and removed per prior permit with the Town. That will be at the buyer's expense to do that. DO NOT GO IN OR AROUND THE BARN. OBEY CAUTION AND STAY OUT SIGNS. Seller will not make any repairs or turn utilities on, as this home will be sold AS IS WHERE IS. All offers to be made on PropOffers.com by the buyer's agent only. This home has wonderful views, an old fashioned church view from your kitchen window, poses as a live picture changing with the seasons. The backyard and side lot are partially wooded and make a great play area or view of the scenery. Close to all Chautauqua Lake Amenities, including the Chautauqua Institution, Mayville and its amenities, Lake Erie, Snowmobile trails, hunting lands, dining, shopping, antiques, and so much more. SCHEDULE YOUR PERSONALIZED TOUR TODAY.

2. 2025-05-03
   historical
3. 2025-03-05
   price $130,000
4. 2024-11-03
   listed $145,000 Active
5. 2020-10-31
   status Pending Sale
6. 2020-08-20
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
7. 2020-07-21
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
8. 2020-07-15
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
9. 2020-07-13
   historical
10. 2020-04-11
    listed $85,000 Active
11. 2020-03-31
    historical
12. 2019-10-14
    price $85,000
13. 2019-08-05
    listed $94,900 Active
14. 2019-06-01
    historical
15. 2018-10-17
    price $99,900
16. 2018-10-17
    price $999,000
17. 2018-10-17
    listed $9,990 Active
18. 2009-02-18
    listed $99,900
19. 2004-08-09
    soldstatus $69,300
20. 2003-10-30
    listed $69,300
21. 2001-02-15
    soldstatus $85,000
22. 2000-06-06
    listed $99,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,552
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $7,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bemus Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #9687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-05-03 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $130,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-03 Listed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-10-31 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-08-20 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2020-07-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-07-15 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2020-07-13 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2020-04-11 Listed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-03-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2019-10-14 Price Changed $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-08-05 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-06-01 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2018-10-17 Price Changed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-17 Price Changed $999,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-10-17 Listed $9,990 UNYREIS
• 2009-02-18 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-08-09 Sold (MLS) $69,300 UNYREIS
• 2003-10-30 Listed $69,300 UNYREIS
• 2001-02-15 Sold (MLS) $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2000-06-06 Listed $99,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,552 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.