7445 SW 15th Pl · Ocala, FL 34474

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1981 1.15 ac lot $126/sqft · 9% above area Est $155k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come make this house your home, needs some love. . but plenty of space. Nice kitchen, dining family room and living room area . . great sized porch. . enough bedrooms a large family and an inside laundry. .. And the yard. . bring that horse, chickens or goats. . you are good to go. .. No sight unseens, no assignables

Key facts

• Great sized porch
• Inside laundry
• 1.15 acre lot

Tags

• GREAT SIZED PORCH
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• YARD BRING THAT HORSE
• YARD CHICKENS OR GOATS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $170k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,483
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 9.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,092
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-9
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34474

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,971/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $405	+0% $357	+5% $309	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $283	+0% $357	+5% $431	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $400	base $357	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7640 SW 14th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,699	$1.45	22d	1	0.19mi
238 NW 76th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $169,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $179,000 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Come make this house your home, needs some love. . but plenty of space. Nice kitchen, dining family room and living room area . . great sized porch. . enough bedrooms a large family and an inside laundry. .. And the yard. . bring that horse, chickens or goats. . you are good to go. .. No sight unseens, no assignables

18. 2008-02-15
    soldstatus $110,000
19. 2005-09-26
    soldstatus $115,000
20. 2005-09-02
    soldstatus $115,000 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    WOW, EVERYTHING IS NEW! New Roof, New A/C, New Laminated Floors, New remodeled Bathrooms and Kitchen, freshly painted. Ready to move in. SHOW AND SELL. Seller is very motivated. Bring all offers! Selling AS-IS. Horses OK.

21. 2005-07-21
    listed $129,500 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    WOW, EVERYTHING IS NEW! New Roof, New A/C, New Laminated Floors, New remodeled Bathrooms and Kitchen, freshly painted. Ready to move in. SHOW AND SELL. Seller is very motivated. Bring all offers! Selling AS-IS. Horses OK.

22. 2004-10-08
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 2004-08-03
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,971 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,971 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,971
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $3,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,258
• Household income: $65,291
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1062.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.16%
• Current HPI: 196.5607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+258.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-21 Listed $129,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-03 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,971 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.