233 E Avenue · Port St. Joe, FL 32456

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2022 5,881 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate 2 Bedroom 2 Bath home with office in Port St. Joe! This split bedroom, end entry home offers a large wide open living, kitchen, and dining area. The master suite features a large walk-in closet, double vanity, walk-in shower, and corner soaking tub. This home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood that is walking distance to shopping and white sandy beaches. With minimal upkeep, and convenient location, this home is sure to gain maximum attention. So schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Double vanity
• Walk in closet

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK IN SHOWER
• CORNER SOAKING TUB
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Zoned for mobile home or single-family residence; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 118

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms including a primary bedroom (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Office on the first floor; Dining room on the first floor; Living room on the first floor; Laundry room on the first floor; Primary bedroom with primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.4% in Port St. Joe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gulf (rural): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #49 of 73 in FL (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1028 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 302 units permitted in Gulf County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gulf County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $180k implies a 1794% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.57%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,582
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,730
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32456

• Home prices YoY: -21.3%
• Active inventory: 1028
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,581/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,456

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $453	+0% $402	+5% $351	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $247	-5% $324	+0% $402	+5% $480	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $448	base $402	+0.5pp $355	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Eighth St Unit U/S Port St Joe, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	14d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   price $179,900
3. 2026-03-02
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2025-05-14
   historical
5. 2025-05-13
   listed $5,000 New
6. 1987-04-01
   soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 32% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,581
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $2,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$483
• After-tax cash flow: $4,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gulf
• NCES district ID: 1200690
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,047
• Composite: 38.63/100
• National rank: #4154
• State rank: #49 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Joe

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Joe, FL
• County: Gulf County · 7,510 people
• City population: 7,304
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,510
• Household income: $64,681
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Gulf County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,677 people
• By 2030: 15,538 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 15,386 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 15,043 · -4.0%
• By 2075: 13,793 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 10,793 · -31.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gulf

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.2) · D 22.6% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -39.3pp · 2024: -54.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.2 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.36%
• Current HPI: 396.0936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1793.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $179,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $5,000 GAMLS
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,581 · +20.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.