2590 S Avalon Dr · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,161 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 7,405 sqft lot Est $187k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS LOVELY 3BEDS/2BATHS HOME HAS BEEN RECENTLY REPAINTED. OPEN FLOOR PLAN. LIVING ROOM HAS VAULTED CEILING, A GAS-LOG FIREPLACE AND NEW PERGO FLOOR. CEILING FANS AND 2" BLINDS ARE IN EVERY ROOM. THE COOK OF THE FAMILY WILL LOVE THE OPEN KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR.HUGE BACK YARD IS FULLY FENCED WITH A STORAGE BUILDING. ALL THE APPLIANCES STAY - INCLUDING THE REFRIGERATOR, WASHER AND DRYER. MOVE-IN READY. HOME IS ELIGIBLE FOR 100% USDA FINANCING.

Key facts

• New roof
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1997

Tags

• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Fixer condition; Estimated living area of 1,181 (source: estimated); Slab foundation
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: City lot; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (1)
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 6.0% in Horn Lake — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horn Lake Elem (451 students, 99% FRL); Horn Lake Middle School (math 37% / reading 21%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,021 students, 100% FRL); Horn Lake High (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 197 statewide, top 49%, 1,361 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,329 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,921
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Bryce Cv	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+3%)	1mo	$194,000	$162	88
2835 W Heatherglen Cv	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,161 (0%)	14mo	$210,000	$181	67
5623 W Avalon Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+12%)	10mo	$215,000	$165	67
2650 Waverly Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,034 (-11%)	13mo	$175,000	$169	61
2947 Waverly Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+14%)	1mo	$209,000	$158	55
5891 Kentwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+11%)	24mo	$199,900	$155	46
2754 Guilford Cv	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,049 (-10%)	24mo	$150,000	$143	45
5915 Waverly Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+15%)	22mo	$179,000	$134	38
1892 Rapier Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+10%)	17mo	$205,000	$161	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-19,079
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,598
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2563 Waverly Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,550	$1.37	21d	1	0.20mi
5961 Kentwood Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,535	$1.19	23d	1	0.42mi
2912 Waverly Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,793	$1.31	4d	1	0.48mi
2900 Brachton Cv W Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,225	$1.23	23d	1	0.55mi
5905 Tulane Rd Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1342	$1,300	$0.97	21d	1	0.60mi
5640 Ingleside Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	4d	1	0.62mi
2905 Brook Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,195	$1.07	21d	1	0.63mi
2905 Brook Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,195	$1.07	2d	1	0.63mi
3305 Laurel Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	23d	1	0.81mi
6230 Somerset Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,593	$1.32	3d	1	0.83mi
6360 Greenbriar Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1328	$1,465	$1.10	43d	1	0.91mi
3060 Fairmeadow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1104	$1,663	$1.51	2d	1	1.00mi
6475 Forest Glen Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,395	$1.27	43d	1	1.06mi
6165 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1079	$1,400	$1.30	43d	1	1.07mi
6545 Hermitage Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	43d	1	1.08mi
2675 Ridgewood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1035	$1,195	$1.15	23d	1	1.09mi
2675 Ridgewood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1065	$1,195	$1.12	21d	1	1.09mi
6420 Forestgate Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,573	$1.40	21d	1	1.15mi
2890 Meadowbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,375	$1.17	3d	1	1.17mi
5381 Peppermill Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	43d	1	1.20mi
2921 Normandy Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,200	$0.96	23d	1	1.23mi
2881 Normandy Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1283	$1,450	$1.13	43d	1	1.28mi
6420 Cornwall Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,550	$1.30	14d	1	1.30mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	23d	1	1.32mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	11d	1	1.32mi
1800 Joy Cir Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	43d	1	1.32mi
6225 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	1.34mi
6290 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	4d	1	1.36mi
3530 Mayfair Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	14d	1	1.36mi
6445 Collinwood Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,593	$1.10	2d	1	1.39mi
2628 Hillcrest Cir Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,275	$1.01	43d	1	1.40mi
3780 Southbrook Dr Horn Lake, MS	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	1.41mi
3285 Edenshire Ln Horn Lake, MS	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,573	$1.12	23d	1	1.42mi
6585 Fairwood Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,553	$1.05	23d	1	1.42mi
6420 Sandhurst Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,623	$1.47	21d	1	1.43mi
6871 Center St Horn Lake, MS	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,395	$1.00	43d	1	1.43mi
6455 Walnut Grove Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,600	$1.36	43d	1	1.44mi
3437 Laurelwood St Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,480	$1.23	11d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 374-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 7.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+108.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2011-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-11-29 Listed $79,900 MLSU
• 2008-09-22 Listed $89,900 MLSU
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-28 Listed $78,990 MLSU
• 2001-09-03 Sold (MLS) — MLSU

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,208 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.