8311 12th Ave S · Birmingham, AL 35206

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1960 0.32 ac lot $54/sqft · 46% below area Est $130k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious layout
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.44%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,932
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -46.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
914 83rd St S	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+1%)	4mo	$90,000	$68	84
8416 S 9th Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+2%)	9mo	$47,000	$35	70
824 85th St S	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,269 (-3%)	7mo	$96,000	$76	70
723 84th Pl S	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	3mo	$179,000	$130	65
617 83rd Pl S	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+3%)	0mo	$82,000	$61	62
8313 9th Ave S	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,453 (+11%)	6mo	$110,000	$76	61
775 81st Pl S	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-6%)	6mo	$103,000	$84	60
848 86th St S	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,226 (-6%)	4mo	$155,000	$126	56
709 85th St S	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+11%)	1mo	$185,000	$128	55
740 81st Pl S	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,137 (-13%)	1mo	$40,000	$35	46
8229 Rugby Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	7mo	$46,000	$41	38
8311 7th Ave S	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,143 (-12%)	8mo	$130,000	$114	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $15,793
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $44,908
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35206

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,337/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $642

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $487	-5% $467	+0% $448	+5% $428	+10% $408
Rent	-10% $352	-5% $400	+0% $448	+5% $495	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $483	-0.5pp $465	base $448	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8229 9th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	997	$1,195	$1.20	3d	1	0.25mi
8621 10th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,400	$1.13	24d	1	0.36mi
775 81st Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,095	$0.89	24d	1	0.44mi
745 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,168	$0.97	2d	1	0.46mi
730 82nd Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,023	$1.14	4d	1	0.50mi
768 80th Pl S Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	0.53mi
832 79th Pl S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	24d	1	0.54mi
8122 Rugby Ave Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.55mi
7808 Vienna Ave Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	904	$850	$0.94	44d	1	0.56mi
636 83rd Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,175	$1.11	44d	1	0.56mi
8242 Vassar Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,100	$0.91	44d	1	0.57mi
735 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,400	$1.14	24d	1	0.58mi
8013 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,150	$0.79	24d	1	0.59mi
731 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1221	$995	$0.81	11d	1	0.60mi
8211 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	966	$1,250	$1.29	44d	1	0.65mi
7825 Rugby Ct Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	929	$875	$0.94	22d	1	0.71mi
7824 Rugby Ct Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.5	1650	$1,275	$0.77	44d	1	0.72mi
7931 7th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	44d	1	0.73mi
7827 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1365	$850	$0.62	4d	1	0.75mi
836 Vanderbilt St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1072	$850	$0.79	24d	1	0.75mi
7823 Rugby Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,175	$1.15	44d	1	0.76mi
514 81st St S Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1174	$1,295	$1.10	44d	1	0.76mi
512 81st St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,150	$0.99	44d	1	0.77mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,528	$1.39	44d	1	0.77mi
8408 5th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	890	$1,295	$1.46	11d	1	0.77mi
805 Vanderbilt St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,291	$0.76	22d	1	0.78mi
425 87th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$1,077	$1.21	44d	1	0.84mi
8202 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,075	$0.91	44d	1	0.84mi
756 Vanderbilt St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,000	$0.91	44d	1	0.84mi
8513 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	44d	1	0.86mi
8035 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	0.87mi
8108 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,200	$0.87	44d	1	0.87mi
7341 Rome Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	4d	1	0.95mi
7341 Rome Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	0.95mi
8129 2nd Ave S Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	0.98mi
8240 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	990	$875	$0.88	24d	1	0.99mi
7815 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,650	$1.10	2d	1	1.00mi
8128 2nd Ave S Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1390	$1,150	$0.83	24d	1	1.01mi
7829 3rd Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,025	$1.02	44d	1	1.05mi
630 77th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1100	$983	$0.89	3d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $89,900 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

15. 2026-04-18
    price $99,900 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

16. 2026-03-18
    status Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

17. 2026-03-10
    status Pending 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $104,900 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home featuring a spacious layout and a large backyard perfect for entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Generously sized bedrooms, ample natural light, and a functional floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living. A great opportunity to own with room to personalize.

19. 2025-11-17
    price $104,900
20. 2025-10-15
    price $111,650
21. 2025-10-05
    price $121,150
22. 2025-09-26
    price $127,400
23. 2025-09-19
    price $133,900
24. 2025-08-29
    price $139,400
25. 2016-08-22
    soldstatus $58,500
26. 1999-06-15
    soldstatus $55,200
27. 1992-04-28
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥106°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,337
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,545
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $4,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,621
• Household income: $42,549
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1169.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 22% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.70%
• Current HPI: 146.2168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.82%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $89,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $99,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $104,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $104,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $111,650 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $121,150 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $127,400 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $133,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $139,400 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1999-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,200 Public Records
• 1992-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,337 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.