19995 Lakeway Ln · Montgomery, TX 77356

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1982 0.38 ac lot $107/sqft · 16% below area Est $178k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized Dual-Lot Property with Income Potential This unique, UNRESTRICTED property features two lots, each with city water, electric meters, septic tanks, and RV hookups with sewer input—ideal for creating two income-producing homes. The home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, handicap-accessible features, and a shared kitchen and living area setup. NEW wrap-around metal-covered porch with wood treated railing, NEW metal carport with gates, two concrete driveways, partial fenced yard, and a shed. Ready for your personal touch, this home is sold AS-IS. Public lake access to LAKE CONROE and to Scott’s Ridge Park both minutes away. Short distance from Montgomery shopping and local restaurants. Highly rated Montgomery schools.

Key facts

• Dual-lot property
• Income potential
• City water

Tags

• DUAL-LOT PROPERTY
• INCOME POTENTIAL
• CITY WATER
• ELECTRIC METERS
• SEPTIC TANKS
• RV HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery El (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #849 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 595 students, 45% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1069 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.95%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,195
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,206
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,928
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1069
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $534	+0% $492	+5% $449	+10% $407
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $413	+0% $492	+5% $571	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $530	base $492	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $150,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 161 DOM
16. 2025-12-21
    listed $175,000 Active 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Oversized Dual-Lot Property with Income Potential This unique, UNRESTRICTED property features two lots, each with city water, electric meters, septic tanks, and RV hookups with sewer input—ideal for creating two income-producing homes. The home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, handicap-accessible features, and a shared kitchen and living area setup. NEW wrap-around metal-covered porch with wood treated railing, NEW metal carport with gates, two concrete driveways, partial fenced yard, and a shed. Ready for your personal touch, this home is sold AS-IS. Public lake access to LAKE CONROE and to Scott’s Ridge Park both minutes away. Short distance from Montgomery shopping and local restaurants. Highly rated Montgomery schools.

17. 2025-12-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Oversized Dual-Lot Property with Income Potential This unique, UNRESTRICTED property features two lots, each with city water, electric meters, septic tanks, and RV hookups with sewer input—ideal for creating two income-producing homes. The home includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, handicap-accessible features, and a shared kitchen and living area setup. NEW wrap-around metal-covered porch with wood treated railing, NEW metal carport with gates, two concrete driveways, partial fenced yard, and a shed. Ready for your personal touch, this home is sold AS-IS. Public lake access to LAKE CONROE and to Scott’s Ridge Park both minutes away. Short distance from Montgomery shopping and local restaurants. Highly rated Montgomery schools.

18. 2025-09-29
    listed $175,000 Active
19. 2025-09-29
    historical
20. 2025-07-10
    price $190,000
21. 2025-04-30
    price $210,000
22. 2025-03-27
    listed $220,000 Active
23. 2020-08-26
    soldstatus
24. 2020-08-25
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2020-08-19
    status Pending
26. 2020-07-28
    listed $55,000 Active
27. 2009-10-06
    soldstatus
28. 2003-04-28
    soldstatus
29. 2003-04-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$907
• After-tax cash flow: $4,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2020-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-28 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2009-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,133 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.