5237 Trailview Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2005 8,537 sqft lot $148/sqft · 5% below area Est $220k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

Key facts

• 8,537 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,850
• List price: $208,000
• Delta: -5.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5237 Trailview Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	0mo	$208,000	$148	100
12539 Early Morning Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+1%)	1mo	$225,000	$159	88
12508 Early Morning Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+0%)	12mo	$230,000	$164	84
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-10%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	64
13300 Old Jamestown Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	12mo	$275,000	$195	62
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,218 (-13%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	60
4830 Parkton Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-0%)	16mo	$228,000	$163	56
13360 Old Jamestown Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+4%)	14mo	$285,000	$195	52
5199 Cheltenham Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-9%)	12mo	$224,900	$177	47
4827 Meuse Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,470 (+5%)	13mo	$329,000	$224	46
29 Brixworth Ct	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-9%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	46
12922 High Crest St	0.63mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,566 (+12%)	2mo	$320,000	$204	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $131,588
• Equity at exit: $187,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $404,378
• Equity at exit: $404,098

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,584/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,868

Max offer price $208,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $194	+0% $135	+5% $76	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $54	+0% $135	+5% $215	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $188	base $135	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	23d	1	0.25mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	4d	1	0.89mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,180	$0.96	0d	18	0.95mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	0.97mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	9d	1	1.07mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,711	$1.45	0d	1	1.35mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	0d	1	1.47mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

2. 2026-04-24
   price $208,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

3. 2026-04-08
   status Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

4. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

5. 2026-03-20
   price $212,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

6. 2026-02-27
   price $219,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

7. 2026-02-06
   price $226,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

8. 2026-01-16
   price $233,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

9. 2025-12-19
   price $240,000 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

10. 2025-11-20
    listed $250,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Welcome to this fantastic, move-in ready, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a 2-car garage in Florissant. Upon entry, embrace open-concept living with cathedral ceilings soaring over the main living area and kitchen. The living area is cozy and inviting, featuring a fireplace and easy access to the back deck. The primary bedroom includes an ensuite bathroom with a shower/tub combo and dual sinks. This home offers a large unfinished basement, perfect for storage or with great potential to be finished out as a secondary living space or game room. The neighborhood is quiet and just minutes from schools, parks, and all the essentials. Schedule your showings today!

11. 2023-11-07
    historical $1,525
12. 2023-11-03
    price $1,525
13. 2023-10-24
    price $1,685
14. 2023-10-22
    price $1,875
15. 2023-09-29
    price $1,925
16. 2023-09-15
    price $2,025
17. 2023-09-12
    price $2,085
18. 2023-09-08
    price $2,095
19. 2023-09-07
    listed $1,935
20. 2015-09-01
    soldstatus $19,500,437
21. 2013-05-23
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 2013-04-26
    soldstatus 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Spacious greatroom ranch with vaulted ceilings, fireplace, large eat in kitchen with loads of cabinets and counter space. The breakfast room has a sliding glass door that leads to a wood deck. There are three bedrooms and two full baths. There is a full unfinished basement. The exterior has a brick veneer front with vinyl siding and two car attached garage. The interior is freshly painted & new neutral flooring. This home is approval for a HomePath Mortgage and a HomePath Renovation Mortgage.

23. 2012-12-10
    listed $97,900 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    Spacious greatroom ranch with vaulted ceilings, fireplace, large eat in kitchen with loads of cabinets and counter space. The breakfast room has a sliding glass door that leads to a wood deck. There are three bedrooms and two full baths. There is a full unfinished basement. The exterior has a brick veneer front with vinyl siding and two car attached garage. The interior is freshly painted & new neutral flooring. This home is approval for a HomePath Mortgage and a HomePath Renovation Mortgage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,584 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,584 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$3,584
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$1,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$426
• After-tax cash flow: $2,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+112.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $208,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $212,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $219,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $226,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $233,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $240,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Listed $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-07 Rental Removed $1,525 RENT.
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $1,525 RENT.
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $1,685 RENT.
• 2023-10-22 Price Changed $1,875 RENT.
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $1,925 RENT.
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $2,025 RENT.
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $2,085 RENT.
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $2,095 RENT.
• 2023-09-07 Listed for Rent $1,935 RENT.
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500,437 Public Records
• 2013-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-10 Listed $97,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,584 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.