10281 Gibson Rd · Laurel Hill, NC 28351

$23,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1955 10,019 sqft lot Est $36k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper, or Investor Special! This one needs a complete remodel but great rural location. Home is being sold ''as is'', the seller is not interested in doing any type of owner financing so needs to be a Cash Sale and Proof of Funds required on all offers.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 149 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RA

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Water connected (see remarks); Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Asbestos and frame construction; Asbestos shingle roof; Built on crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4 (bedrooms not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No built-in appliances indicated; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No heating or cooling systems listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#256 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $281 of equity ($165 loan paydown + $116 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.22%
• DSCR: 5.10
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $35,752
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10020 Gibson Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	896 (+3%)	8mo	$37,000	$41	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $32,614
• Equity at exit: $7,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.12×
• Total profit: $74,383
• Equity at exit: $9,523

Cash invested: $6,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28351

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$125
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $201

Max offer price $23,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $521	+0% $514	+5% $508	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $481	+0% $514	+5% $548	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $520	base $514	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,975
• Closing costs: $717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $23,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $23,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $23,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $23,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $23,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $23,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $23,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $23,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $23,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $28,500 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,500 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $28,500 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,500 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,500 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,500 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,500 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,500 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $28,500
19. 2026-02-20
    price $35,500
20. 2026-01-20
    listed $39,900 Active
21. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $160,000
22. 2002-10-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,339
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$695
• Taxable income: $6,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $4,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scotland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704200
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,203
• Composite: 20.66/100
• National rank: #8536
• State rank: #160 of 178 in NC

Livability — Laurel Hill

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #11216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,792

Population outlook (Scotland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,331 people
• By 2030: 32,017 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 29,290 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 26,554 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 19,857 · -40.4%
• By 2100: 13,851 · -58.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 16% Native American 11% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.9) · D 46.2% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -6.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.9 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+7.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 189.4535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+29.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $28,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $35,500 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $39,900 Hive MLS
• 2014-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.