10446 Willowdale Dr · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,276 sqft · Condo public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1963 $117/sqft · 14% below area Est $173k · 14% under $442/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Income-producing condo located in the highly desirable Creve Coeur submarket, currently leased at $1,645 per month, offering investors immediate rental income from day one. This tenant-occupied unit provides a straightforward buy-and-hold opportunity in one of St. Louis County’s most stable rental markets, known for consistent demand due to its central location, proximity to major employment centers, and convenient access to I-270, Olive Blvd, Westport, shopping, and dining. This townhome style unit property presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking predictable income in an established area with long-term rental demand, rather than speculative appreciation plays. The main level has a guest half bath, the 2nd level is 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, and the lower level is partially finished with storage as well. Properties at this price point in Creve Coeur are increasingly limited, making this an appealing option for investors looking to add a performing asset in a strong central-county location. Agents: see agent remarks.

Key facts

• Tenant occupied unit
• Central location
• Performing asset

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING CONDO
• TENANT OCCUPIED UNIT
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-270
• PERFORMING ASSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (12.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Ladue (suburban): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #2 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $150k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,394 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,382
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -13.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $70,307
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $203,997
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,720/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$442
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $131,394

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10461 Willowdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1476	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.06mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.20mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.21mi
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,889	$2.04	2d	47	0.42mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	15d	1	0.68mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	44d	1	0.71mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	24d	1	0.91mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	44d	1	0.91mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	44d	1	0.91mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	44d	1	0.91mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	3d	6	0.95mi
18 Queensbrook Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1675	$3,500	$2.09	2d	1	1.02mi
11164 De Malle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1146	$2,475	$2.16	11d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $442 · $5,304/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    listed $149,900 Active 1060-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1060 chars)

    Income-producing condo located in the highly desirable Creve Coeur submarket, currently leased at $1,645 per month, offering investors immediate rental income from day one. This tenant-occupied unit provides a straightforward buy-and-hold opportunity in one of St. Louis County’s most stable rental markets, known for consistent demand due to its central location, proximity to major employment centers, and convenient access to I-270, Olive Blvd, Westport, shopping, and dining. This townhome style unit property presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking predictable income in an established area with long-term rental demand, rather than speculative appreciation plays. The main level has a guest half bath, the 2nd level is 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, and the lower level is partially finished with storage as well. Properties at this price point in Creve Coeur are increasingly limited, making this an appealing option for investors looking to add a performing asset in a strong central-county location. Agents: see agent remarks.

15. 2025-12-30
    historical $1,595
16. 2025-10-14
    price $1,595
17. 2025-09-23
    listed $1,700
18. 2025-09-09
    price $161,900
19. 2025-08-07
    price $164,900
20. 2025-07-19
    status Active
21. 2025-05-22
    price $169,900
22. 2025-05-08
    listed $174,900 Active
23. 2025-05-05
    historical
24. 2017-10-03
    soldstatus $99,000
25. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2017-09-03
    status Pending
27. 2017-08-24
    historical Option
28. 2017-07-27
    status Active
29. 2017-07-24
    status Pending
30. 2017-07-03
    listed $109,900 Active
31. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus
32. 2014-02-07
    listed $89,900
33. 2007-04-17
    soldstatus $138,000
34. 2005-09-02
    soldstatus $133,000
35. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus $60,500
36. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus
37. 1981-12-01
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,720
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − HOA: −$5,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$857
• After-tax cash flow: $-400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ladue
• NCES district ID: 2917820
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $109,713
• Composite: 62.57/100
• National rank: #681
• State rank: #2 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+191.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Rental Removed $1,595 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $1,595 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $1,700 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $161,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $164,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-19 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Listed $174,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-02 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-03 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-24 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-27 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-03 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-07 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,720 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.