4414 Willow · Mattawan, MI 49009

$82,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $86k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

COMING 6/15- MORE PICTURES COMING TOO! Discover the perfect blend of modern comfort and style in this beautiful, move-in-ready home. Featuring a spacious open-concept kitchen and living area, it?s ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a private bathroom and generous space, while the rest of the home provides a well-designed layout with contemporary finishes and energy-efficient construction. ASK ME ABOUT SPECIAL HOME BUYER OFFER!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Built 2025
• Listed 33 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price $82,999

Exterior

• Home design: Spec home from the Woodland Estates (MI) plan
• Exterior features: Located at 4414 Willow, Kalamazoo, MI 49009

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,456 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $756 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 2.5% in Mattawan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#235 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattawan Consolidated School (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #50 of 540 in MI (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 339 units permitted in Kalamazoo County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kalamazoo County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $80,509 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.03%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,904
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8959 Meadowview Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	2mo	$88,000	$59	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $29,784
• Equity at exit: $12,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $68,967
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49009

• Rents YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $756

Break-even live

Break-even rent $726

Max offer price $82,999

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $813	-5% $785	+0% $756	+5% $727	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $689	+0% $756	+5% $822	+10% $889
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $777	base $756	+0.5pp $734	+1.0pp $712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4797 S 4th St Kalamazoo, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$1,669	$1.57	14d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,999 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,999 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,999 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,999 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $82,999 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $82,999 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   remarks 469-char remark
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $82,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,999 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $8,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $7,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattawan Consolidated School
• NCES district ID: 2623250
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,525
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1825
• State rank: #50 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mattawan

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #5936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kalamazoo County · 224,317 people
• City population: 11,839
• Metro: Kalamazoo-Portage, MI
• Population (ZIP): 47,971
• Household income: $80,930
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1579.0

Population outlook (Kalamazoo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,982 people
• By 2030: 292,068 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 312,191 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 331,196 · +17.9%
• By 2075: 379,021 · +34.9%
• By 2100: 396,579 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kalamazoo

• 2024 margin: D (+17.7) · D 58.0% · R 40.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.5pp · 2024: 17.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.7 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+13.3 2008: D+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.34%
• Current HPI: 209.5649
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.96%
• Metro: Kalamazoo-Portage, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B