11414 Serra Rd #17 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$64,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 174 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $56/sqft · 18% above area Est $55k · 18% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-cared-for home in a quiet 55+ community designed for relaxed, low-stress living. This inviting residence offers two spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a primary suite with a large walk-in closet. The open-concept layout features updated flooring, plantation shutters throughout, built-in storage, and a separate laundry room that keeps everything in its place. A large covered front deck creates the perfect spot to enjoy desert mornings and cool evenings, while the mature desert landscaping, apricot tree, and clean side and backyard spaces add to the home’s appeal. Additional features include a two-car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized storage shed, and shade awnings on the windows to help keep the home comfortable. Residents enjoy access to a heated pool, fitness equipment, game room, library, gathering areas, dog park, and free RV parking, all with onsite management. Conveniently located near shopping while remaining pleasantly tucked away, this community offers low space rent, affordable utilities, and a welcoming environment.

Key facts

• Shade awnings
• Open-concept layout
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK
• MATURE DESERT LANDSCAPING
• AUTOMATIC SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• OVERSIZED STORAGE SHED
• SHADE AWNINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→3/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.27%
• DSCR: 3.99
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,000
• List price: $64,900
• Delta: 18.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11414 Serra #36	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,088 (-6%)	6mo	$69,000	$63	84
11414 Serra Rd #25	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+10%)	9mo	$69,900	$55	73
11414 Serra Rd #4	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,032 (-10%)	22mo	$32,500	$31	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $56,855
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.90×
• Total profit: $143,537
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $1,019

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,064	-5% $1,041	+0% $1,019	+5% $996	+10% $974
Rent	-10% $872	-5% $945	+0% $1,019	+5% $1,092	+10% $1,165
Rate	-1.0pp $1,051	-0.5pp $1,035	base $1,019	+0.5pp $1,002	+1.0pp $985

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11515 Chimayo Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1471	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	0.59mi
11045 Kiowa Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,825	$1.59	25d	1	0.69mi
10868 Kiowa Rd Unit D Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	0d	1	0.84mi
11255 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1147	$1,950	$1.70	44d	1	0.93mi
10811 Kiowa Rd Unit 3A Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	3d	1	0.93mi
12212 Kiowa Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,700	$1.72	6d	1	1.00mi
19569 Saint Andrews Way Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1349	$1,985	$1.47	44d	1	1.26mi
21181 Balsa St Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,500	$2.31	44d	1	1.36mi
12525 Kiowa Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	799	$1,675	$2.10	44d	1	1.38mi
21490 Bear Valley Rd Apt A Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,595	$1.82	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $64,900 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $64,900 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $64,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    price $64,900 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    Well-cared-for home in a quiet 55+ community designed for relaxed, low-stress living. This inviting residence offers two spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a primary suite with a large walk-in closet. The open-concept layout features updated flooring, plantation shutters throughout, built-in storage, and a separate laundry room that keeps everything in its place. A large covered front deck creates the perfect spot to enjoy desert mornings and cool evenings, while the mature desert landscaping, apricot tree, and clean side and backyard spaces add to the home’s appeal. Additional features include a two-car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized storage shed, and shade awnings on the windows to help keep the home comfortable. Residents enjoy access to a heated pool, fitness equipment, game room, library, gathering areas, dog park, and free RV parking, all with onsite management. Conveniently located near shopping while remaining pleasantly tucked away, this community offers low space rent, affordable utilities, and a welcoming environment.

16. 2025-12-26
    listed $74,900 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    Well-cared-for home in a quiet 55+ community designed for relaxed, low-stress living. This inviting residence offers two spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, including a primary suite with a large walk-in closet. The open-concept layout features updated flooring, plantation shutters throughout, built-in storage, and a separate laundry room that keeps everything in its place. A large covered front deck creates the perfect spot to enjoy desert mornings and cool evenings, while the mature desert landscaping, apricot tree, and clean side and backyard spaces add to the home’s appeal. Additional features include a two-car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized storage shed, and shade awnings on the windows to help keep the home comfortable. Residents enjoy access to a heated pool, fitness equipment, game room, library, gathering areas, dog park, and free RV parking, all with onsite management. Conveniently located near shopping while remaining pleasantly tucked away, this community offers low space rent, affordable utilities, and a welcoming environment.

17. 2020-07-03
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed Sale 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    Fabulous cottage in the desert. 55+ community. Absolutely turnkey condition! Recently upgraded and updated interior. 2 spacious bedrooms with brand new carpet. Two spotless bathrooms. Master has a giant walk in closet. Newer flooring, newer AC condenser and new energy efficient swamp cooler, new appliances, newer designer plantation shutters thru out, open concept floor plan, separate laundry room, built ins, and much more. Huge covered deck at the front door, mature apricot tree, large super clean side and back yards with beautiful desert scape. 2 car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized shed, shade awnings on the windows to keep things cooler. Community amenities include heated pool, gym equipment, game room, library, gathering place, dog park, and extra RV parking for free. Quiet tranquil friendly neighbors and beautiful weather. Close to shopping yet extremely secluded with a dedicated entry. 2 miles to major shopping. Pets are welcome with some restrictions. Manager is onsite to keep things in top shape and peaceful. Low space rent and affordable utilities. Hurry Hurry!!! Homes in this immaculate condition do not last.

18. 2020-06-17
    status Pending Sale 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    Fabulous cottage in the desert. 55+ community. Absolutely turnkey condition! Recently upgraded and updated interior. 2 spacious bedrooms with brand new carpet. Two spotless bathrooms. Master has a giant walk in closet. Newer flooring, newer AC condenser and new energy efficient swamp cooler, new appliances, newer designer plantation shutters thru out, open concept floor plan, separate laundry room, built ins, and much more. Huge covered deck at the front door, mature apricot tree, large super clean side and back yards with beautiful desert scape. 2 car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized shed, shade awnings on the windows to keep things cooler. Community amenities include heated pool, gym equipment, game room, library, gathering place, dog park, and extra RV parking for free. Quiet tranquil friendly neighbors and beautiful weather. Close to shopping yet extremely secluded with a dedicated entry. 2 miles to major shopping. Pets are welcome with some restrictions. Manager is onsite to keep things in top shape and peaceful. Low space rent and affordable utilities. Hurry Hurry!!! Homes in this immaculate condition do not last.

19. 2020-05-15
    listed $49,900 Active 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    Fabulous cottage in the desert. 55+ community. Absolutely turnkey condition! Recently upgraded and updated interior. 2 spacious bedrooms with brand new carpet. Two spotless bathrooms. Master has a giant walk in closet. Newer flooring, newer AC condenser and new energy efficient swamp cooler, new appliances, newer designer plantation shutters thru out, open concept floor plan, separate laundry room, built ins, and much more. Huge covered deck at the front door, mature apricot tree, large super clean side and back yards with beautiful desert scape. 2 car covered carport, automatic sprinkler system, oversized shed, shade awnings on the windows to keep things cooler. Community amenities include heated pool, gym equipment, game room, library, gathering place, dog park, and extra RV parking for free. Quiet tranquil friendly neighbors and beautiful weather. Close to shopping yet extremely secluded with a dedicated entry. 2 miles to major shopping. Pets are welcome with some restrictions. Manager is onsite to keep things in top shape and peaceful. Low space rent and affordable utilities. Hurry Hurry!!! Homes in this immaculate condition do not last.

20. 2020-05-08
    status Pending Sale
21. 2020-05-05
    historical
22. 2020-03-05
    price $45,500
23. 2020-01-23
    price $49,900
24. 2019-12-13
    listed $55,000 Active
25. 2007-07-01
    historical
26. 2007-06-30
    price $49,900
27. 2007-05-18
    price $67,000
28. 2007-04-21
    listed $67,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥99°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $11,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,856
• After-tax cash flow: $9,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $64,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2020-07-03 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CRMLS
• 2020-06-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2020-05-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-05-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-03-05 Price Changed $45,500 CRMLS
• 2020-01-23 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2019-12-13 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-06-30 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2007-05-18 Price Changed $67,000 CRMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listed $67,500 CRMLS