2849 Mcguffey Rd · Youngstown, OH 44505

$66,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1920 1.11 ac lot Est $83k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

Key facts

• 1.11 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Three garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Aluminum siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Aluminum siding construction; Asphalt and fiberglass roofing
• Exterior features: Lot about 1.11 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.76%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,680
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3302 Castalia Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+14%)	4mo	$212,000	$136	40
2337 Bott St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+11%)	10mo	$91,000	$60	40
2318 Mcguffey Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,226 (-11%)	12mo	$45,000	$37	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $27,321
• Equity at exit: $9,841

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $72,737
• Equity at exit: $5,706

Cash invested: $18,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44505

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $578/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $66,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,500
• Closing costs: $1,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Colby Ave Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1512	$1,300	$0.86	21d	1	0.85mi
2983 Megan Cir Youngstown, OH	4.0	2.0	1366	$1,275	$0.93	13d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $66,000 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $66,000 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $66,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $66,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $66,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $66,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $66,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $66,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $66,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $66,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $66,000 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-02-03
    status Active
18. 2026-01-19
    historical Contingent
19. 2026-01-04
    listed $66,000 Active
20. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus $47,000
21. 2019-07-19
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

22. 2019-06-13
    status Pending 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

23. 2019-03-28
    status Pending 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

24. 2019-03-27
    historical 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

25. 2019-03-20
    historical Contingent 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

26. 2018-11-26
    listed $29,500 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Spacious home on over 1 acre, Newer furnace & hot water tank, electrical box and vinyl windows. 3 car detached garage. 3rd floor attic is walk up with room to finish.

27. 2018-11-21
    historical
28. 2018-03-28
    listed $29,500 Active
29. 2017-10-10
    status Pending
30. 2017-10-09
    historical
31. 2017-09-12
    status Active
32. 2017-09-10
    historical
33. 2017-03-10
    listed $29,500 Active
34. 2015-04-01
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold
35. 2015-03-11
    status Pending
36. 2015-03-04
    listed $23,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$226/yr (+$19/mo · 39.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,697
• − Property taxes: −$578
• − Insurance: −$330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$1,920
• Taxable income: $6,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,553
• After-tax cash flow: $5,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,449
• Household income: $36,480
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.8

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.64%
• Current HPI: 192.3375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+176.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-19 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-04 Listed $66,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-06-13 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-28 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2019-03-20 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2018-11-26 Listed $29,500 MLSNOW
• 2018-11-21 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2018-03-28 Listed $29,500 MLSNOW
• 2017-10-10 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2017-10-09 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2017-09-12 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2017-09-10 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2017-03-10 Listed $29,500 MLSNOW
• 2015-04-01 Sold (MLS) $18,000 MLSNOW
• 2015-03-11 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2015-03-04 Listed $23,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $578 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.