9 Capewood Ct · The Woodlands, TX 77381

$239,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,041 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 6,372 sqft lot Est $273k · 12% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this cozy 3 bedroom with open living - dining area, inside laundry, fresh paint, and fenced backyard. Close to park and schools.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to park
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING AREA
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO PARK
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: The Woodlands Township association with $275 annual fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story; Built in 1979; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-814/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,371 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,742
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 S Circlewood Gln	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+2%)	19mo	$265,500	$249	78
16 Capewood Ct	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,106 (+6%)	19mo	$290,000	$262	72
35 E Bigelow Oak Court Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,148 (+10%)	2mo	$329,000	$287	69
24 E Bigelow Oak Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+8%)	10mo	$245,000	$217	68
56 Oldstream Ct	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,066 (+2%)	11mo	$275,000	$258	55
83 N Rushwing Cir	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,115 (+7%)	3mo	$319,000	$286	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,966
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-51,858
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,763/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $227,917

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 Holly Creek Ct The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	43d	1	0.07mi
27 N Circlewood Gln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	0.11mi
4407 S Panther Creek Dr Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	645	$1,214	$1.88	43d	1	0.50mi
3500 Tangle Brush Dr Unit 1114 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,898	$1.52	43d	1	0.88mi
3500 Tangle Brush Dr Unit 1258 The Woodlands, TX	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,004	$1.42	43d	1	0.88mi
3451 Tangle Brush Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	825	$1,483	$1.80	43d	1	1.05mi
23 Emery Cliff Pl Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,885	$1.35	43d	1	1.10mi
3318 Kentwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,800	$1.45	13d	1	1.38mi
3419 Shadowcrest Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 134-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,627/yr (+$136/mo · 58.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,763
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $239,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,763 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.