Robin 34NMTR3CG Plan · Killeen, TX 76542

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 299 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Farmhouse-style 3-4 bedroom homes at Turnbo Ranch in Killeen, TX. Spacious lots, 3-car garages, and open-concept living. Priced from the mid $200s.

Key facts

• Listed 298 days

🏗️ New construction. The $200,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,706.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 643 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.34%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,706
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -29.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Hugh Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	3mo	$254,900	$188	64
118 Ellenora Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	3mo	$272,225	$192	62
337 Dobson	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+1%)	1mo	$269,230	$191	60
105 Hugh Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	7mo	$275,945	$195	56
209 Powder Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	9mo	$275,435	$195	54
182 Hugh Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	17mo	$266,005	$188	53
133 Arvil Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+8%)	3mo	$269,900	$178	51
106 Arvil Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	16mo	$273,375	$193	49
154 Ellenora Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+7%)	15mo	$277,195	$185	46
134 Arvil Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+7%)	11mo	$279,945	$187	46
114 Ellenora Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,263 (-10%)	7mo	$264,035	$209	44
177 Hugh Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,263 (-10%)	16mo	$266,375	$211	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-81,765
• Equity at exit: $42,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-131,629
• Equity at exit: $24,357

Cash invested: $78,878 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,477
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,226/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $211,931

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-288	-5% $-385	+0% $-482	+5% $-580	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-629	-5% $-555	+0% $-482	+5% $-409	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-340	-0.5pp $-411	base $-482	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,426
• Closing costs: $8,451
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3303 Castleton Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,595	$1.19	22d	1	0.97mi
3423 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1804	$1,850	$1.03	44d	1	1.00mi
9405 Glynhill Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	14d	1	1.04mi
3520 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,795	$1.34	44d	1	1.11mi
9911 Diana Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,795	$1.08	14d	1	1.14mi
9210 Sandyford Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,650	$1.08	14d	1	1.29mi
400 Paddock Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,800	$1.11	44d	1	1.30mi
3809 Tanchico Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	44d	1	1.33mi
3214 Shawlands Rd Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$1,795	$1.09	44d	1	1.38mi
302 Saddleback Trl Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.38mi
3716 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-08-02
   listed $200,000 Active 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   Farmhouse-style 3-4 bedroom homes at Turnbo Ranch in Killeen, TX. Spacious lots, 3-car garages, and open-concept living. Priced from the mid $200s.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,780
• − Property taxes: −$4,226
• − Insurance: −$1,409
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,780
• − Management: −$1,780
• − Depreciation: −$8,195
• Taxable loss: −$10,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,621
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1167.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-02 Listed $200,000 Zillow