22 Mills Ave · South Burlington, VT 05403

$309,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1959 8,276 sqft lot $349/sqft · 14% below area Est $359k · 14% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

Key facts

• Cherry cabinetry
• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• CLASSIC VINTAGE DETAILS
• CHARMING CORNER CUPBOARD
• CHERRY CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BRAND-NEW VINYL FLOORING
• BATH FITTER TUB/SHOWER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in South Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#4 in VT, #765 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living D-.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlin School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #65 of 192 statewide, top 36%, 457 students, 19% FRL); Frederick H. Tuttle Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #8 of 26 statewide, top 32%, 512 students, 18% FRL); South Burlington High School (math 35% / reading 76%, grade C, #5 of 48 statewide, top 9%, 843 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $241,679 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,123
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -13.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Mills Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (0%)	0mo	$299,000	$337	95
1385 Williston Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0	893 (+1%)	12mo	$364,900	$409	70
33 Barber Ter	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+1%)	21mo	$325,000	$361	67
1 Mills Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (-8%)	23mo	$335,000	$411	56
21 Clinton St	0.75mi	2/1.0	900 (+1%)	11mo	$349,000	$388	54
49 Berkley St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	9mo	$420,000	$438	54
17 Hanover St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	7mo	$400,000	$417	53
3 Gilbert St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-11%)	19mo	$385,000	$486	48
70 Hayden Pkwy	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+11%)	20mo	$350,000	$356	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,815
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-83,191
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05403

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,365/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $287,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-38	+0% $-125	+5% $-213	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-221	+0% $-125	+5% $-30	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-47	base $-125	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Beacon St South Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	850	$2,600	$3.06	22d	1	0.25mi
268 Market St South Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,669	$1.69	22d	1	0.84mi
200 Garden St South Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	22d	1	0.85mi
61 N Dorset St South Burlington, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,100	$2.82	22d	2	1.03mi
425 Dorset St #39 South Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,150	$2.05	45d	1	1.29mi
326 Quarry Hill Rd South Burlington, VT	2.0	1.5	1027	$2,200	$2.14	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $309,900 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

3. 2026-05-05
   status Active 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

4. 2026-04-22
   status Pending 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

5. 2026-04-17
   price $319,900 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

6. 2026-04-04
   price $334,900 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

7. 2026-03-17
   price $344,900 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

8. 2026-03-02
   listed $359,900 Active 1290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1290 chars)

   This post-war vintage ranch is being offered by only its second owner since construction and sits on a quiet neighborhood street ideal for evening walks. The location provides exceptional convenience — just minutes to Burlington International Airport, extensive shopping and services in Williston, I-89, downtown Burlington, and the UVM Medical Center and college campuses. Inside, the home offers a true blank canvas ready for your personal touch. Classic vintage details remain intact, including solid wood doors with glass knobs and a charming corner cupboard in the kitchen. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with cherry cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new vinyl flooring (2026) that continues into the utility/laundry room. The bathroom has been recently improved with a Bath Fitter tub/shower system and updated hardware. Mechanical updates include a natural gas furnace (2010), rental hot water heater (2018), fresh water pressure tank (2023), and vinyl siding (1999). Vinyl siding and a metal roof offer low maintenance. An oversized one-car garage provides protected parking and additional cold storage for bicycles, yard equipment, and outdoor furniture. The level backyard offers an inviting outdoor space to enjoy Vermont’s changing seasons.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,365 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,626 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,262/yr (+$105/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,365
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,320
• − Management: −$2,320
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$6,928
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — South Burlington

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #765

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Burlington, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 20,614
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 20,614
• Household income: $105,616
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 799.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.90%
• Current HPI: 282.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $309,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $319,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $334,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $344,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $359,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,365 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.