20854 US 23 · Louisa, KY 41230

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,652 sqft · SingleFamily · 208 Days on market

$55/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom Brick Home Near Louisa and Yatesville Lake. This inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick home is ideally located just minutes from Louisa and the beautiful Yatesville Lake. With a spacious layout and ready-to-move-in condition, this property is perfect for a first home or if you are downsizing. The open kitchen layout provides ample counter space and storage, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The two-car detached garage offers secure parking and additional storage options. There is also a nice sized garden space, perfect for growing your own vegetables. This charming home is ready for you to make it your own. Schedule a showing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Brick home
• Open kitchen layout
• Detached garage

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• OPEN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GARDEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-715/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $119,298 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,918
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -56.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Waller Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,384 (-10%)	5mo	$777,000	$326	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $48,334
• Equity at exit: $102,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $143,232
• Equity at exit: $195,301

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41230

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $136,375

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-10	+0% $-60	+5% $-110	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-107	+0% $-60	+5% $-12	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-23	base $-60	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $145,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,000 Active 191 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    price $164,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Brick Home Near Louisa and Yatesville Lake. This inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick home is ideally located just minutes from Louisa and the beautiful Yatesville Lake. With a spacious layout and ready-to-move-in condition, this property is perfect for a first home or if you are downsizing. The open kitchen layout provides ample counter space and storage, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The two-car detached garage offers secure parking and additional storage options. There is also a nice sized garden space, perfect for growing your own vegetables. This charming home is ready for you to make it your own. Schedule a showing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

18. 2025-12-22
    price $169,000 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Brick Home Near Louisa and Yatesville Lake. This inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick home is ideally located just minutes from Louisa and the beautiful Yatesville Lake. With a spacious layout and ready-to-move-in condition, this property is perfect for a first home or if you are downsizing. The open kitchen layout provides ample counter space and storage, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The two-car detached garage offers secure parking and additional storage options. There is also a nice sized garden space, perfect for growing your own vegetables. This charming home is ready for you to make it your own. Schedule a showing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

19. 2025-11-25
    listed $179,000 Active 708-char remark

    Show marketing remark (708 chars)

    Charming 3-Bedroom Brick Home Near Louisa and Yatesville Lake. This inviting 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick home is ideally located just minutes from Louisa and the beautiful Yatesville Lake. With a spacious layout and ready-to-move-in condition, this property is perfect for a first home or if you are downsizing. The open kitchen layout provides ample counter space and storage, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The two-car detached garage offers secure parking and additional storage options. There is also a nice sized garden space, perfect for growing your own vegetables. This charming home is ready for you to make it your own. Schedule a showing today to experience all that this property has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 2103240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,668
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7189
• State rank: #95 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #18153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,399

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,462 people
• By 2030: 15,038 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,142 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,292 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 11,353 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 9,417 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 15.9% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.5 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 177.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $164,000 AABOR
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $169,000 AABOR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $179,000 AABOR