907 Shepherd St · Morgan, TX 76690

$139,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2001 6,273 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bath per unit, this two-story, 2,580 sq ft duplex features functional layouts, comfortable living areas, and private entries. Perfect for a house-hacker or investor looking to expand a Central Texas portfolio. The adjoining lots and neighboring duplexes (905 & 909 Shepherd St) are also available—purchase one or the full package for an unmatched multi-property investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,273 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $492/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,291 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Morgan ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #895 of 1,141 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.12%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $80,710
• Equity at exit: $64,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $198,314
• Equity at exit: $99,771

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76690

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,252/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,023	+0% $983	+5% $944	+10% $904
Rent	-10% $779	-5% $881	+0% $983	+5% $1,085	+10% $1,188
Rate	-1.0pp $1,054	-0.5pp $1,019	base $983	+0.5pp $947	+1.0pp $910

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3.0	1.5	$2,590
Total (2 units)			$2,590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bath per unit, this two-story, 2,580 sq ft duplex features functional layouts, comfortable living areas, and private entries. Perfect for a house-hacker or investor looking to expand a Central Texas portfolio. The adjoining lots and neighboring duplexes (905 & 909 Shepherd St) are also available—purchase one or the full package for an unmatched multi-property investment opportunity.

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $139,900 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Offering 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bath per unit, this two-story, 2,580 sq ft duplex features functional layouts, comfortable living areas, and private entries. Perfect for a house-hacker or investor looking to expand a Central Texas portfolio. The adjoining lots and neighboring duplexes (905 & 909 Shepherd St) are also available—purchase one or the full package for an unmatched multi-property investment opportunity.

20. 2026-02-19
    price $139,900
21. 2025-10-20
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,252 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,252 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,252
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $10,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,460
• After-tax cash flow: $9,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morgan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831380
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,102
• Composite: 32.43/100
• National rank: #10864
• State rank: #895 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Morgan

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1291
• US rank: #22455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morgan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Bosque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 16,953 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 16,014 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 15,116 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 13,468 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 11,147 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Bosque

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.9pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+61.4 2008: R+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Current HPI: 180.4906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $169,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,252 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.