4280 Patterson Dr #75 · Diamond Springs, CA 95619

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $238k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this warm and inviting home in Lake Oaks, a highly desirable 55+ community, ideally situated on a large corner lot on a cul-de-sac just up the street from the clubhouse and close to the community garden, with a serene lake view enjoyed from both the wraparound deck and inside the dining and family rooms, and direct access to the park walking trail right behind the home; this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence features a bright, open floorplan enhanced by beautiful rustic LVP flooring (2020), dual pane windows (2020), and a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings, a built-in desk, and sliding glass doors leading to the front deck, while the dining area is accented by a new li

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Rustic lvp flooring
• Wraparound deck

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• CUL-DE-SAC
• SERENE LAKE VIEW
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• RUSTIC LVP FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed (monthly): $923
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease not indicated as applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water and public sewer; Propane available; Individual electric meter and individual gas meter; Cable and internet available; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home in a park; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1978
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Other roof type; Lancer manufactured home
• Exterior features: Carport awning and porch awning; Shed(s) on the property; Corner lot in a cul-de-sac, close to clubhouse, landscaped, regular shape, lake access

Interior

• Kitchen: Synthetic counters; Built-in electric oven, gas cook top, hood over range, dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator, garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tub/shower over and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven, gas cook top, hood over range, free-standing refrigerator, dishwasher, disposal, microwave; Porch steps and a covered deck; Dual-pane windows with coverings and screens; Pets allowed with limits
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included inside laundry room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.3% in Diamond Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,239 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mother Lode Union Elementary (rural): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4280 Patterson Dr #59	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$237,000	$165	91
4380 Patterson Dr #201	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$273,500	$190	84
4390 Patterson Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,467 (+2%)	1mo	$224,000	$153	81
4280 Patterson Dr #44	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	12mo	$219,000	$143	75
4420 Pleasant Valley Rd #164	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$195,000	$135	72
4420 Pleasant Valley Rd #90	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$145,000	$94	71
4420 Pleasant Valley Rd #163	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$237,000	$176	70
4420 Pleasant Valley Rd #174	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	11mo	$150,000	$98	68
4390 Patterson Dr #218	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	6mo	$280,000	$212	66
4280 Patterson Dr #69	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	13mo	$238,000	$191	61
4380 Patterson Dr #206	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	12mo	$205,500	$165	60
4390 Patterson Dr #257	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,585 (+10%)	11mo	$260,000	$164	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,151
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,254
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95619

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $383	+0% $309	+5% $234	+10% $160
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $219	+0% $309	+5% $398	+10% $488
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $363	base $309	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3884 Rosey Way Placerville, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,595	$2.36	20d	1	1.27mi
579 Racquet Way Diamond Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	968	$1,900	$1.96	2d	1	1.37mi
4012 Wimbledon Dr Diamond Springs, CA	3.0	2.5	1233	$2,250	$1.82	2d	1	1.41mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$71
• After-tax cash flow: $3,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mother Lode Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625980
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,429
• Composite: 36.63/100
• National rank: #9251
• State rank: #726 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Diamond Springs

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1239
• US rank: #26264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Diamond Springs, CA
• City population: 6,362
• Population (ZIP): 6,362

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.93%
• Current HPI: 248.9804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B