773 SE 1211 Rd · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 64740

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Other public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

6.1 Acres | Henry County, Missouri Clean, buildable acreage in the heart of the Missouri Ozarks. Located roughly 15 to 20 minutes from both Deepwater and Warsaw, this 6.1-acre tract offers privacy and convenience in equal measure. Highlights: Electric at the road Fiber optic available 6.1 acres with room to build, hunt, or simply get away Convenient access to two small towns No flood zone concerns This is a straightforward piece of ground at a fair price. Perfect for a weekend getaway, a permanent homesite, or a long-term land hold. Survey on file. Seller financing available.

Key facts

• 6.1 acres
• Buildable acreage
• Electric at the road

Tags

• 6.1 ACRES
• BUILDABLE ACREAGE
• ELECTRIC AT THE ROAD
• FIBER OPTIC AVAILABLE
• NO FLOOD ZONE CONCERNS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($824 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 4.2% in Bent Tree Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $923 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $750 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $25k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.04%
• DSCR: 4.38
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $31,298
• Equity at exit: $11,241

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.27×
• Total profit: $71,873
• Equity at exit: $17,324

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64740

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $790/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $451	+0% $444	+5% $437	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $411	+0% $444	+5% $476	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $450	base $444	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $25,000 Under Contract 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $25,000 Active
16. 1988-04-01
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $790 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$790
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$791
• − Management: −$791
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $5,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,568

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,584 people
• By 2030: 19,839 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 18,305 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 16,893 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 14,285 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 11,905 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.6) · D 23.2% · R 75.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: -11.0pp · 2024: -52.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.6 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+25.9 2008: R+11.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+194.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $25,000 FSBO.com
• 1988-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $790 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.