5847 Coahulia · Geronimo, TX 78155

$189,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $150/sqft · 18% below area Est $232k · 18% under $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is nestled in the sought-after Navarro Ranch community. Designed for comfort and convenience, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living room, a modern kitchen with sleek appliances and ample counter space, and a dining area that invites family gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private ensuite bath, while the two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed second bathroom.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern kitchen
• Private ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1863 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,914 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,162
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: -18.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5515 Alope Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	3mo	$189,999	$150	84
206 Pastar Fls	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	1mo	$175,999	$130	77
215 Pastar Fls	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	4mo	$186,999	$138	76
9024 James Bowie	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-4%)	4mo	$169,500	$139	76
121 Pastar Fls	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+7%)	7mo	$165,999	$123	68
5507 Alope Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$198,999	$142	68
5519 Alope Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	2mo	$217,999	$155	66
5526 Alope Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$194,999	$139	66
5535 Alope Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	2mo	$194,999	$138	65
5534 Alope Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$195,999	$140	65
5511 Alope Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	3mo	$197,999	$140	65
5542 Alope Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	2mo	$194,999	$138	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-39,895
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-50,598
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $205,999 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 254 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1863
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,107/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $168,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-66	+0% $-119	+5% $-173	+10% $-227
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-187	+0% $-119	+5% $-52	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-71	base $-119	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	57d	1	0.03mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	141d	1	0.03mi
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,545	$1.07	57d	1	0.05mi
5909 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,545	$1.05	44d	1	0.05mi
5938 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,875	$1.15	6d	1	0.06mi
5938 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1627	$1,675	$1.03	0d	1	0.06mi
5929 Antonio Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,550	$0.95	2d	1	0.06mi
5912 Texas Spur Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,700	$1.18	41d	1	0.07mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	0d	1	0.08mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	3d	1	0.08mi
5911 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	4d	1	0.08mi
9206 Bowie Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,675	$1.32	0d	1	0.13mi
9211 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	0d	1	0.13mi
5824 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	0d	1	0.13mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,625	$1.00	41d	1	0.14mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	0d	1	0.14mi
245 Pastar Fls Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,675	$1.13	0d	1	0.15mi
9269 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	4d	1	0.16mi
9269 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	0d	1	0.16mi
9129 Navarro Vis Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,800	$1.11	57d	1	0.17mi
9256 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	41d	1	0.17mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	100d	1	0.18mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	0d	1	0.19mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	141d	1	0.22mi
202 Pastar Fls Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	0d	1	0.23mi
9258 Honey Mesquite Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	0d	1	0.23mi
9066 Bowie Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,795	$1.07	0d	1	0.23mi
9201 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,580	$1.10	25d	1	0.27mi
9517 Chappo Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,499	$1.01	0d	1	0.32mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	41d	1	0.33mi
9144 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,650	$0.99	4d	1	0.33mi
9144 Luciano Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,650	$0.99	0d	1	0.33mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	82d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $189,990 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   This one-story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is nestled in the sought-after Navarro Ranch community. Designed for comfort and convenience, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living room, a modern kitchen with sleek appliances and ample counter space, and a dining area that invites family gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private ensuite bath, while the two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed second bathroom. Located in the highly rated Navarro Independent School District, this

2. 2026-04-18
   price $199,990 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   This one-story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is nestled in the sought-after Navarro Ranch community. Designed for comfort and convenience, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living room, a modern kitchen with sleek appliances and ample counter space, and a dining area that invites family gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private ensuite bath, while the two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed second bathroom. Located in the highly rated Navarro Independent School District, this

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $214,990 New 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   This one-story, 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is nestled in the sought-after Navarro Ranch community. Designed for comfort and convenience, the home features an open floor plan with a spacious living room, a modern kitchen with sleek appliances and ample counter space, and a dining area that invites family gatherings. The primary bedroom boasts a private ensuite bath, while the two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed second bathroom. Located in the highly rated Navarro Independent School District, this

4. 2025-02-10
   historical $1,525
5. 2024-12-08
   listed $1,525

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,107 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,107 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$4,107
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $-322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,330–$18,990 screening

This Navarro Ranch home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and prevents water damage. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens the interior and improves comfort. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern features. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro J H C- TX #378/1,662 Nat'l #3,736/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 51/100

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12358.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $189,990 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $199,990 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Listed $214,990 LERA
• 2025-02-10 Rental Removed $1,525 CTXMLS
• 2024-12-08 Listed for Rent $1,525 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+107.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,107 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.