LOT 38 Pr 1510 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Land · 190 Days on market

Built 2024 0.28 ac lot $130/sqft · 27% below area Est $165k · 27% under $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy hill country living at its best in the resort-style community of Holiday Villages. Neighborhood amenities include controlled access with guarded gate, active clubhouse, swimming pool, and sand volleyball court. 2024 single-story home is ready for new owners to start their next chapter. The 3-bedroom 2-bath home boasts a modern open concept floorplan with living area open to kitchen allowing for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has roomy ensuite with single vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are split from the primary for added privacy. Relaxation is made easy on secluded front patio where you can enjoy the quiet hill country life and beautiful Texas sunsets. Schedule your showing now and make this home yours today!

Key facts

• Controlled access
• Active clubhouse
• Modern open concept

Tags

• CONTROLLED ACCESS
• GUARDED GATE
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• SAND VOLLEYBALL COURT
• MODERN OPEN CONCEPT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.15%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,625
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -27.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $12,977
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $53,199
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 190 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 189 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 188 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 184 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 181 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 172 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    price $120,000 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Enjoy hill country living at its best in the resort-style community of Holiday Villages. Neighborhood amenities include controlled access with guarded gate, active clubhouse, swimming pool, and sand volleyball court. 2024 single-story home is ready for new owners to start their next chapter. The 3-bedroom 2-bath home boasts a modern open concept floorplan with living area open to kitchen allowing for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has roomy ensuite with single vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are split from the primary for added privacy. Relaxation is made easy on secluded front patio where you can enjoy the quiet hill country life and beautiful Texas sunsets. Schedule your showing now and make this home yours today!

16. 2026-01-14
    price $129,900 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Enjoy hill country living at its best in the resort-style community of Holiday Villages. Neighborhood amenities include controlled access with guarded gate, active clubhouse, swimming pool, and sand volleyball court. 2024 single-story home is ready for new owners to start their next chapter. The 3-bedroom 2-bath home boasts a modern open concept floorplan with living area open to kitchen allowing for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has roomy ensuite with single vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are split from the primary for added privacy. Relaxation is made easy on secluded front patio where you can enjoy the quiet hill country life and beautiful Texas sunsets. Schedule your showing now and make this home yours today!

17. 2026-01-06
    price $138,800 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Enjoy hill country living at its best in the resort-style community of Holiday Villages. Neighborhood amenities include controlled access with guarded gate, active clubhouse, swimming pool, and sand volleyball court. 2024 single-story home is ready for new owners to start their next chapter. The 3-bedroom 2-bath home boasts a modern open concept floorplan with living area open to kitchen allowing for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has roomy ensuite with single vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are split from the primary for added privacy. Relaxation is made easy on secluded front patio where you can enjoy the quiet hill country life and beautiful Texas sunsets. Schedule your showing now and make this home yours today!

18. 2025-12-10
    listed $150,000 New 762-char remark

    Show marketing remark (762 chars)

    Enjoy hill country living at its best in the resort-style community of Holiday Villages. Neighborhood amenities include controlled access with guarded gate, active clubhouse, swimming pool, and sand volleyball court. 2024 single-story home is ready for new owners to start their next chapter. The 3-bedroom 2-bath home boasts a modern open concept floorplan with living area open to kitchen allowing for easy entertaining. Primary bedroom has roomy ensuite with single vanity, tub/shower combo, and walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms are split from the primary for added privacy. Relaxation is made easy on secluded front patio where you can enjoy the quiet hill country life and beautiful Texas sunsets. Schedule your showing now and make this home yours today!

19. 2025-09-09
    historical
20. 2023-09-09
    listed $35,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $5,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+242.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $129,900 LERA
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $138,800 LERA
• 2025-12-10 Listed $150,000 LERA
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-09-09 Listed $35,000 LERA