615 Church St · Neodesha, KS 66757

$94,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1991 Est $124k · 23% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Key facts

• Wood back deck
• Central heat and air
• Front porch

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• HUGE KITCHEN
• WOOD BACK DECK
• LARGE YARD
• FRONT PORCH
• PRIVACY FENCED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#196 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Neodesha (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #121 of 169 in KS (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $263 of equity ($656 loan paydown + $-393 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.11%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,047
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 N 8th St	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,120 (+8%)	3mo	$133,000	$63	77
704 Church St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-1%)	24mo	$115,000	$59	68
122 N 3rd St	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,088 (+6%)	7mo	$189,000	$91	56
1520 N 8th St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,051 (+4%)	4mo	$205,000	$100	52
540 S 5th St	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,116 (+8%)	3mo	$73,900	$35	47
915 Main St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-8%)	18mo	$99,000	$54	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $19,546
• Equity at exit: $25,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $58,597
• Equity at exit: $29,267

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66757

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,310 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $94,900 Active
17. 2025-12-24
    historical
18. 2025-10-16
    price $93,900
19. 2025-10-07
    price $94,900
20. 2025-09-30
    price $98,900
21. 2025-07-29
    price $99,800
22. 2025-07-16
    price $107,500
23. 2025-06-24
    listed $109,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $3,228
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $3,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neodesha
• NCES district ID: 2009900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,989
• Composite: 23.54/100
• National rank: #7863
• State rank: #121 of 169 in KS

Livability — Neodesha

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #8894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Neodesha, KS
• Population (ZIP): 3,225

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,872 people
• By 2030: 7,383 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 6,533 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 5,923 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 5,134 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 4,788 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.4) · D 18.0% · R 80.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -62.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.4 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+63.1 2012: R+54.0 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Current HPI: 131.4107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $94,900 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $93,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $94,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $98,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $99,800 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $107,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $109,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid