4888 Camino Dos Vidas · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2005 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage offers comfort, space, scenic charm, and 1,433 square feet. Inside, you'll find tile flooring throughout all common areas, with cozy carpeting in each bedroom. The spacious, tiled living room creates a welcoming central gathering space, while the kitchen is designed for both function and style, featuring wood cabinetry, a pantry, a dedicated eating area, and sliding glass doors that open to the backyard for easy indoor-outdoor living. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with an en-suite bath that includes double sinks, wood cabinets, a garden tub/shower combination, and closet. Two additional bedrooms and a ful

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Tiled living room
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• TILED LIVING ROOM
• WOOD CABINETRY
• DEDICATED EATING AREA
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• XERISCAPED FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Dos Suenos Estates

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single-family property
• Exterior features: Patio; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Open floor plan; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-377/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 592 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,728 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,186
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,977
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 592
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,737/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867

Max offer price $229,443

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $35	+0% $-31	+5% $-98	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-104	+0% $-31	+5% $41	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $28	base $-31	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4942 Sherwood Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,625	$1.18	14d	1	0.58mi
4950 Ortega Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1035	$1,475	$1.43	22d	1	0.61mi
5014 Kenner Way Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,825	$1.10	14d	1	0.62mi
3833 Ranchers Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.72mi
5095 Kensington Way Las Cruces, NM	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,525	$1.52	45d	1	0.84mi
7516 Sierra de Oro Pl Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	14d	1	0.98mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	45d	1	1.17mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	45d	1	1.26mi
7353 Vista de Sobre Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,895	$1.26	45d	1	1.30mi
3860 Las Colinas Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,600	$1.03	22d	1	1.33mi
3862 Van Ess Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,545	$1.04	14d	1	1.42mi
4831 Jade Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,600	$1.41	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2023-08-05
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,737 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,737
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-04 Listed $235,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-05 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,737 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.