15409 Dobson Ave · Dolton, IL 60419

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1957 5,488 sqft lot Est $175k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15409 Dobson Ave, a charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick and frame split-level home nestled in a quiet Dolton neighborhood, built in 1957 and full of potential! Spanning 1,142 square feet on a 43x128 lot, this move-in ready home features a combined living and dining room on the main level, an 8x10 kitchen, and a spacious 14x16 family room in the finished partial basement, along with a dedicated laundry room, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The second level offers three comfortable bedrooms and a full bath, while a large brick paver patio out back sets the stage for summer gatherings and backyard barbecues. Several updates have been made within the last five years, and t

Key facts

• Easy access to i-294
• Brick paver patio
• Detached garage

Tags

• BRICK PAVER PATIO
• FINISHED PARTIAL BASEMENT
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXTRA-LONG CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO I-294

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 43 x 128 (less than 0.25 acre)
• Financial info: Special service area: No
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (owned), total of 1 garage space; Concrete parking, 4 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan and public supply; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family split-level home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Brick and frame construction; Shake roof
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 8 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on second level (approx. 11 x 13); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 12); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Basement has a bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished partial basement; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement (approx. 10 x 10)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $751 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 9.3% in Dolton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,517/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 919% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $130k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.74%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,726
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15539 Minerva Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,050 (-8%)	2mo	$134,000	$128	76
717 E 154th St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-2%)	2mo	$177,000	$158	73
15505 Drexel Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	2mo	$205,000	$171	73
15043 Meadow Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,151 (+1%)	1mo	$130,000	$113	72
1340 Prince Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-7%)	2mo	$160,000	$150	69
15509 Rose Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	0mo	$135,000	$123	68
1138 E 151st St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$210,000	$199	65
15722 Woodlawn East Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,015 (-11%)	1mo	$101,000	$100	61
15634 Avalon Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,029 (-10%)	1mo	$115,000	$112	61
14927 Cottage Grove Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-4%)	1mo	$250,000	$228	60
15310 Oak St	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,037 (-9%)	1mo	$190,000	$183	47
615 E 156th Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+14%)	2mo	$198,650	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $40,286
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $158,184
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60419

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$502 /mo · $6,028/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15231 Hastings Dr Dolton, IL	4.0	1.5	1487	$2,146	$1.44	8d	1	0.29mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	25d	1	0.63mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	8d	1	0.63mi
16001 Avalon Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1136	$3,330	$2.93	6d	1	0.75mi
14916 Langley Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1418	$2,500	$1.76	25d	1	0.78mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	11d	1	0.89mi
14817 Champlain Ave Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,430	$2.48	22d	1	0.90mi
14716 Dorchester Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,800	$2.24	19d	1	0.94mi
14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	10d	1	0.96mi
660 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	1.02mi
16246 Dobson Ave South Holland, IL	3.0	2.0	1250	$3,170	$2.54	2d	1	1.07mi
409 Madison Ave Unit 2 Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	4d	1	1.10mi
14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1017	$2,400	$2.36	6d	1	1.12mi
659 Paxton Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,461	$1.96	10d	1	1.17mi
14433 Woodlawn Ave Dolton, IL	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	1.20mi
14500 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 3 Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,475	$1.48	25d	1	1.23mi
405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	973	$2,300	$2.36	1d	1	1.25mi
1860 State St Calumet City, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	18d	1	1.49mi
14305 Irving Ave Unit 2 Dolton, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $130,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $140,000 Active
17. 2022-01-29
    historical
18. 2022-01-15
    price
19. 2022-01-02
    listed Active
20. 1994-08-29
    soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,028 · $502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,028 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$6,028
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $7,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Dolton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #4883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dolton, IL
• County: Cook County · 4,486,803 people
• City population: 20,825
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,825
• Household income: $57,887
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.88%
• Current HPI: 193.2346
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.65%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $140,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-29 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-15 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,028 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.