30 Park Ave · Shirley, NY 11967

$680,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1958 0.38 ac lot Est $679k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Tangier section of Shirley! This spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath colonial offers the perfect combination of size, comfort, and thoughtful updates throughout. From the moment you pull up, the curb appeal and manicured landscaping make it clear that this home has been cared for with pride and yes… it truly looks as good in person as it does in the photos. Inside, you’ll find a spacious open floor plan designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The heart of the home is the stunning eat-in kitchen complete with granite countertops, a large center island with prep sink, coffee bar, stainless steel appliances, oversized pantry, and plenty of cabinet space. The de

Key facts

• Large center island
• Eat-in kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• COFFEE BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED PANTRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage; 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Trash collection (public); Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Chef's kitchen; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; Full basement with walk-out access; Attic (see remarks); 8 total rooms; Three or more levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $680k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $602k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $602k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($670k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $680k implies a 608% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $602,274 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $679,485
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Smith Rd	0.25mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,105 (-10%)	4mo	$665,000	$316	64
60 Heston Rd	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,250 (-4%)	10mo	$620,000	$276	63
63 Linden Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,171 (-7%)	11mo	$600,000	$276	62
45 Arrowhead Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,112 (-10%)	5mo	$600,000	$284	60
31 Windus	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,280 (-2%)	15mo	$670,000	$294	60
72 Propose Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-2%)	7mo	$539,500	$235	58
22 Ridge Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,015 (-14%)	9mo	$660,000	$328	49
45 Lama Dr	0.63mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (-6%)	13mo	$640,000	$291	45
101 Mastic Blvd W	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,400 (+3%)	12mo	$550,000	$229	44
18 Windus Dr	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,990 (-15%)	2mo	$537,000	$270	41
55 Lama Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	1,998 (-14%)	8mo	$615,000	$308	38
41 Loughlin Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,067 (-12%)	18mo	$605,000	$293	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-100,305
• Equity at exit: $101,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-74,529
• Equity at exit: $58,794

Cash invested: $190,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,566
• Tax from tax record: −$754 /mo · $9,047/yr
• Insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,265
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,827

Max offer price $680,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $347	+0% $155	+5% $-38	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-83	+0% $155	+5% $393	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $328	base $155	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,000
• Closing costs: $20,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	4d	1	0.55mi
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	26d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $680,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $680,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $680,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $680,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $680,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $680,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $680,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $680,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $680,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $680,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $680,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $680,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $680,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $680,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $680,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $680,000 Active
17. 1999-03-04
    soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,047 · $754/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,270 · $856/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,222/yr (+$102/mo · 13.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,091
• − Property taxes: −$9,047
• − Insurance: −$3,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,782
• − Management: −$5,782
• − Depreciation: −$19,782
• Taxable loss: −$9,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $4,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+608.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $680,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,047 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.