443 Cedar Cir · Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1980 0.48 ac lot Est $551k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Light, bright, and beautifully updated! This cabin is nestled under the pines, at the end of a cul-de-sac in Lake Almanor Pines and ready for fun on day one! This octagon shaped 3BR, 3BA home has newer laminate flooring and carpet, 2 updated bathrooms, an open kitchen and beautiful wood walls and ceilings. 6 of the 8 sides of the home have covered walkway/decking. The large deck has both a covered area and uncovered to enjoy the sun or stars at night. Perfect for a family gathering or game night! There is a 2-car garage and a 2-car covered carport. There is even space to park a small trailer. Just a short drive from the valley heat – enjoy Lassen National Park, Lake Almanor, fishin

Key facts

• Large deck
• Close to restaurants
• Close to marinas

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED WALKWAY
• LARGE DECK
• CLOSE TO MARINAS
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces); Detached carport (2 spaces); Concrete parking areas; Off-street parking; On-street / street parking
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built with unknown/other materials
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Deck; Has a view; Located on a sloping lot; Cul-de-sac setting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Forced air; Wood stove heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Beamed ceilings; Wood burning stove / fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($442k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,000 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $550,746
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,981 (+0%)	21mo	$400,000	$202	69
425 Ponderosa Drive Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (+4%)	21mo	$388,000	$189	66
625 Deep Forest Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,944 (-2%)	7mo	$540,000	$278	58
467 Ponderosa Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-15%)	6mo	$535,000	$318	58
78 Lakeside Drive Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,177 (+10%)	2mo	$810,000	$372	54
293 Terranova Drive Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,200 (+11%)	4mo	$910,000	$414	48
215 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,117 (+7%)	14mo	$570,000	$269	45
624 Deep Forest Rd	0.67mi	3/3.0	2,236 (+13%)	10mo	$624,500	$279	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $37,998
• Equity at exit: $162,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $155,258
• Equity at exit: $222,531

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,828

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $461	+0% $334	+5% $206	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $166	+0% $334	+5% $501	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $448	base $334	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $449,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $449,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 8 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    price $449,000
19. 2026-05-22
    listed $469,000 Active
20. 2023-10-03
    historical
21. 2023-08-17
    status Active
22. 2023-08-12
    historical
23. 2023-08-07
    price $469,000
24. 2023-08-07
    price $469,000
25. 2023-07-25
    listed $489,000 Active
26. 2023-07-14
    status Active
27. 2023-07-04
    status Pending
28. 2023-06-16
    listed $489,000 Active
29. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $440,000
30. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $440,000
31. 2021-05-06
    listed $429,000
32. 2017-07-27
    soldstatus $97,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$3,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $4,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Peninsula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #22469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+362.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $449,000 PAR
• 2026-05-22 Listed $469,000 PAR
• 2023-10-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — PAR
• 2023-08-12 Delisted — PAR
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $469,000 PAR
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $469,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-25 Listed $489,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-14 Relisted — PAR
• 2023-07-04 Pending — PAR
• 2023-06-16 Listed $489,000 PAR
• 2021-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) $440,000 PAR
• 2021-05-06 Listed $429,000 PAR
• 2017-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,788 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.