4660 S Captains Cir · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$285,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1985 0.94 ac lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This home offers solid structure and great potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision. In need of cosmetic updates including flooring, stair work, and roof patching, this property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. The unique multi-level layout features the primary suite, kitchen, dining, and living room on the top floor, with a centrally located family room and additional bedrooms thoughtfully separated for added privacy. Enjoy a peaceful setting with a pond fed by Croker Creek, which runs through the Birch Harbor Estates greenbelt and borders the property--creating a sense of privacy and natural surroundings. Fish in the summer and skate in the

Key facts

• 0.94 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,812 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-58,342
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,458
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,326/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $250,293

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-116	+0% $-196	+5% $-277	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-281	+0% $-196	+5% $-112	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-124	base $-196	+0.5pp $-270	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4921 S Binnacle Dr Unit B Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,900	$1.12	25d	1	0.43mi
5321 S Gilca Pl Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	15d	1	0.67mi
5595 S Irwin Dr #2 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.5	1313	$2,095	$1.60	25d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   status Active
3. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-02
   listed $285,000 Active
5. 2021-11-08
   soldstatus
6. 2021-06-18
   status Pending
7. 2021-05-28
   status Active
8. 2021-05-26
   status Pending
9. 2021-05-21
   listed $235,000 Active
10. 2020-10-21
    price $209,000
11. 2020-10-07
    listed $219,000 Active
12. 2009-08-05
    soldstatus
13. 2009-06-01
    listed $189,900
14. 2007-08-31
    listed $124,000
15. 2006-11-14
    listed $175,000
16. 2002-11-15
    soldstatus
17. 2002-07-15
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,326 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,359 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,326
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,773
• After-tax cash flow: $-584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+78.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-04-05 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $285,000 AKMLS
• 2021-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-05-28 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2021-05-26 Pending — AKMLS
• 2021-05-21 Listed $235,000 AKMLS
• 2020-10-21 Price Changed $209,000 AKMLS
• 2020-10-07 Listed $219,000 AKMLS
• 2009-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-01 Listed $189,900 AKMLS
• 2007-08-31 Listed $124,000 AKMLS
• 2006-11-14 Listed $175,000 AKMLS
• 2002-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Listed $159,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,326 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.