15535 Abbotshall Bend Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$392,500

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,833 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,773 sqft lot Garage $139/sqft · 7% below area Est $423k · 7% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This exceptional residence seamlessly integrates contemporary enhancements with optimal functionality and sophisticated design. Upon entry, an open-concept layout immediately captivates. The expansive living area transitions effortlessly into a gourmet kitchen, distinguished by granite countertops, stainless steel appliances. The primary suite, conveniently situated on the first floor, offers stand alone shower, soaker tub, dual sinks, and an ample walk-in closet. The upper level offers four bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and a spacious game/media room, ideal for entertainment. An additional benefit is the easily accessible walk-in attic, located directly off the game room.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Walk-in attic
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN ATTIC
• CUSTOM SOFFIT LIGHTING
• GENERATOR-READY INFRASTRUCTURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $392k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-854 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (38.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 897 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,718 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.59%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,820
• List price: $392,500
• Delta: -5.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12818 Firbrae Dr	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,826 (-0%)	1mo	$425,000	$150	82
15626 Beltie Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,727 (-4%)	4mo	$369,850	$136	76
15666 Countesswells Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,714 (-4%)	2mo	$420,000	$155	76
15611 Countesswells Dr	0.14mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,979 (+5%)	2mo	$425,000	$143	74
12810 Raemoir	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,772 (-2%)	3mo	$429,990	$155	72
15214 Monal Trie Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,734 (-4%)	2mo	$369,900	$135	71
12526 Sabine Point Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,880 (+2%)	2mo	$379,900	$132	68
12510 Bedford Bend Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,843 (+0%)	0mo	$370,000	$130	64
15430 Paxton Woods Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,884 (+2%)	4mo	$395,000	$137	62
12503 Stablewood Cove Cir	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,979 (+5%)	3mo	$340,000	$114	61
15639 Scolty Reach Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,490 (-12%)	4mo	$411,000	$165	60
12607 Pine Savannah Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	3,145 (+11%)	4mo	$480,000	$153	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,380
• Equity at exit: $95,609

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-148,733
• Equity at exit: $101,134

Cash invested: $109,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $389,990 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax from tax record: −$861 /mo · $10,333/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,123

Max offer price $241,718

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-631	-5% $-742	+0% $-854	+5% $-965	+10% $-1,076
Rent	-10% $-1,094	-5% $-974	+0% $-854	+5% $-733	+10% $-613
Rate	-1.0pp $-656	-0.5pp $-754	base $-854	+0.5pp $-955	+1.0pp $-1,059

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,125
• Closing costs: $11,775
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	52d	1	0.16mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	93d	1	0.16mi
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX	4.0	3.5	3238	$3,700	$1.14	30d	1	0.32mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,581	$0.98	21d	1	0.40mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	35d	1	0.47mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,466	$0.98	7d	1	0.55mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,696	$1.02	42d	1	0.58mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	50d	1	0.71mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$6,325	$2.40	0d	1	0.71mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,456	$0.92	19d	1	0.74mi
12923 Palm Leaf Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$1,901	$0.88	7d	1	0.96mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	93d	1	1.00mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2671	$2,595	$0.97	32d	1	1.01mi
12218 Sunlight Peak Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$2,251	$1.01	42d	1	1.34mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	93d	1	1.40mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$9,388	$2.90	93d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: POA of Balmoral IncAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationBuilt in 2022
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardFenceBack yard fencingProperty backs to greenbelt/parkSubdivision setting

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (gas)
• Interior features: Soaking tubSeparate showerWindow treatments / coveringsCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $392,500 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $392,500 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $392,500 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $392,500 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $392,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $392,500 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $392,500 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $392,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $392,500 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    pricedays on market $392,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $395,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $395,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $395,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $395,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $395,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $395,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $395,000 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $395,000 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $395,000 Active 18 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $395,000 Active 17 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $395,000 Active 16 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $395,000 Active 15 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $395,000 Active 13 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 11 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $395,000 Active 10 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $395,000 Active 9 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $395,000 Active 8 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $395,000 Active 7 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 6 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 5 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $395,000 Active 3 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $395,000 Active 2 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    remarks 699-char remark
35. 2026-06-27
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $395,000 Active 1 DOM
36. 2026-05-17
    historical
37. 2026-04-09
    listed $399,000 Active
38. 2026-04-06
    historical
39. 2026-03-01
    status Active
40. 2026-02-28
    historical
41. 2025-09-16
    listed $430,000 Active
42. 2025-09-16
    historical
43. 2025-08-01
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,333 · $861/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,333 · $861/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,986
• − Property taxes: −$10,333
• − Insurance: −$2,760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,921
• − Management: −$2,921
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$11,418
• Taxable loss: −$17,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,109
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,165–$42,495 screening

This well-maintained, 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home is ready for move-in with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: POA of Balmoral IncAnnual association fee of $1,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationBuilt in 2022
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardFenceBack yard fencingProperty backs to greenbelt/parkSubdivision setting

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (gas)
• Interior features: Soaking tubSeparate showerWindow treatments / coveringsCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-26 Listed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $430,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $450,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+142.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,333 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.