11 Oak St · Louisa, KY 41230

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1995 5,489 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located, this manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths on a 0.126 acre lot. With easy access to town and everyday amenities, it's a great option for comfortable living on a manageable lot. MLS # 126904

Key facts

• 5,489 sq ft lot
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.9% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawrence County High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 738 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $48,067
• Equity at exit: $63,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $127,914
• Equity at exit: $121,221

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41230

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,623
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 2103240
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,668
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7189
• State rank: #95 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #18153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,399

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,462 people
• By 2030: 15,038 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 14,142 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 13,292 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 11,353 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 9,417 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.2) · D 15.9% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -67.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.2 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.5 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 177.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $140 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.