59 Walnut St · Toms River, NJ 08753

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1962 8,276 sqft lot $294/sqft · 21% below area Est $437k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch with attached garage and full basement. Hardwood floors thruout. Roof 2 yrs. old. Needs updating but good bones. Fenced in rear yard. Screen porch too

Key facts

• Central a/c
• Brick front home
• Full size basement

Tags

• BRICK FRONT HOME
• FULL SIZE BASEMENT
• CENTRAL A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1172
• Financial info: Financial specifics not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public sewer; Power and water details not provided
• Home design: Property type details not provided; Stories and entry level not provided; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Construction year not provided; Construction materials not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Full unfinished basement; Living room; Dining room; Kitchen
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Street Elementary School (math 14% / reading 35%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 739 students, 51% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $345k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,409 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,828
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -21.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 James St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+2%)	11mo	$510,000	$428	72
20 N Gateway	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+0%)	5mo	$425,000	$361	68
135 Division St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-4%)	13mo	$395,000	$349	62
24 N Gateway	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,230 (+5%)	21mo	$435,000	$354	53
1036 Mulberry Pl	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-14%)	1mo	$455,000	$451	52
26 S Gateway	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,300 (+11%)	11mo	$505,000	$388	51
7 Thomas St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+14%)	2mo	$426,000	$319	49
110 Walnut St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,251 (+7%)	23mo	$385,000	$308	49
23 Grant Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	8mo	$430,000	$398	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-73,270
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-96,908
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,664 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,340/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,930

Max offer price $307,905

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-112	+0% $-210	+5% $-308	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-315	+0% $-210	+5% $-105	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-122	base $-210	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
83 Walnut St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	722	$1,800	$2.49	0d	2	0.10mi
802 Main St Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$2,499	$3.20	0d	4	0.66mi
416 Hooper Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1330	$3,000	$2.26	45d	1	0.73mi
100 Kaplan Ct Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1123	$3,007	$2.68	18d	9	0.97mi
18 Maiden Ln Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,750	$2.26	8d	1	1.28mi
648 Longview Dr Unit Single Family House Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	850	$2,974	$3.50	26d	1	1.30mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	0d	17	1.37mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$3,430	$2.37	0d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 284-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $345,000 Active 284-char remark
3. 2015-08-07
   soldstatus $169,000 Sold 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch with attached garage and full basement. Hardwood floors thruout. Roof 2 yrs. old. Needs updating but good bones. Fenced in rear yard. Screen porch too

4. 2015-06-06
   historical 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch with attached garage and full basement. Hardwood floors thruout. Roof 2 yrs. old. Needs updating but good bones. Fenced in rear yard. Screen porch too

5. 2015-05-12
   listed $169,000 Active 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch with attached garage and full basement. Hardwood floors thruout. Roof 2 yrs. old. Needs updating but good bones. Fenced in rear yard. Screen porch too

6. 1989-04-07
   soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,340 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,465 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,125/yr (+$177/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$4,340
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,558
• − Management: −$2,558
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$8,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,057
• After-tax cash flow: $-462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+228.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $345,000 MOMLS
• 2015-08-07 Sold (MLS) $169,000 MOMLS
• 2015-06-06 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-05-12 Listed $169,000 MOMLS
• 1989-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,340 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.