1127 State Route 13 · Altmar, NY 13493

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2009 72 ac lot $146/sqft · 30% below area Est $256k · 30% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a serene, private, peaceful place?? This is the property for you, come check out this log cabin home nestled on 72 Acres! Plenty of room for snowmobiling, hiking, snowshoeing, 4 wheeling, fishing, hunting and much more. A short commute to the Salmon River where you can enjoy World Class fishing. This custom built cabin offers an open concept with kitchen and living area, 2 bedrooms, a den/study area that can easily be converted into a 3rd bedroom. Come see for yourself, book an appointment today!

Key facts

• 72.26 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Elementary School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 602 students, 58% FRL); Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Jr/Sr High School (math 47% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 464 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $180k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,576 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,777
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -29.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1367 State Route 13	1.12mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+9%)	18mo	$125,000	$93	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $83,476
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $257,199
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13493

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $139,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-126	-5% $-177	+0% $-228	+5% $-279	+10% $-330
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-275	+0% $-228	+5% $-181	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-182	base $-228	+0.5pp $-275	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Looking for a serene, private, peaceful place?? This is the property for you, come check out this log cabin home nestled on 72 Acres! Plenty of room for snowmobiling, hiking, snowshoeing, 4 wheeling, fishing, hunting and much more. A short commute to the Salmon River where you can enjoy World Class fishing. This custom built cabin offers an open concept with kitchen and living area, 2 bedrooms, a den/study area that can easily be converted into a 3rd bedroom. Come see for yourself, book an appointment today!

2. 2026-04-04
   listed $180,000 Active 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Looking for a serene, private, peaceful place?? This is the property for you, come check out this log cabin home nestled on 72 Acres! Plenty of room for snowmobiling, hiking, snowshoeing, 4 wheeling, fishing, hunting and much more. A short commute to the Salmon River where you can enjoy World Class fishing. This custom built cabin offers an open concept with kitchen and living area, 2 bedrooms, a den/study area that can easily be converted into a 3rd bedroom. Come see for yourself, book an appointment today!

3. 2026-03-25
   historical
4. 2025-09-04
   price $180,000
5. 2025-06-27
   listed $184,900 Active
6. 2023-11-10
   historical
7. 2023-08-18
   listed $189,900 Active
8. 2005-02-03
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,444 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$6,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altmar

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #21658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,355

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.54%
• Current HPI: 328.0392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+414.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $180,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $180,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $184,900 CNYIS
• 2023-11-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $189,900 CNYIS
• 2005-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.