1819 Poppy St · Haines City, FL 33844

$364,499

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,421 sqft · Land · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 5,663 sqft lot $59/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. Lucia - BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES with use of Seller's Preferred Lender. Invite yourself into the Lucia, a two-story home with 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a private 2-car garage. Just off the foyer, you'll find a welcoming guest suite complete with a private bathroom, offering the perfect blend of comfort and privacy. The open concept living area, highlighted by luxury vinyl plank flooring, flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which features sleek quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances and a spacious pantry. Sliding glass doors lead to a charming patio, ideal for outdoor relaxation in the Florida climate. Upstairs

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private bathroom
• Guest suite

Tags

• GUEST SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,151
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Prime Community Management, LLC); association approval required; HOA dues $178 quarterly (about $59.33/month); Community amenities: dog park, park, playground, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Entry faces north; Under construction (projected completion June 30, 2026)
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: Casa Fresca Homes (Model: Lucia)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot about 0.13 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; In-wall pest system; Open floor plan; Stone counters; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,481/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $248,144 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-96,281
• Equity at exit: $54,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-143,767
• Equity at exit: $31,515

Cash invested: $102,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,911
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,220/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $273,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-307	-5% $-410	+0% $-514	+5% $-617	+10% $-720
Rent	-10% $-710	-5% $-612	+0% $-514	+5% $-416	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-330	-0.5pp $-421	base $-514	+0.5pp $-608	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,125
• Closing costs: $10,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1728 Vanilla St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,400	$1.30	24d	1	0.12mi
2744 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,250	$1.32	4d	1	0.29mi
2748 Ginger Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	15d	1	0.30mi
4904 Bluebell Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2840	$2,700	$0.95	24d	1	0.47mi
4520 Ranunculus St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2290	$2,300	$1.00	15d	1	0.54mi
1242 Tagliamento Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,000	$1.10	24d	1	0.56mi
4434 Petunia ST Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	3.0	2122	$2,350	$1.11	11d	1	0.57mi
3857 Geranium Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2073	$2,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.68mi
835 Ofanto Way Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2080	$2,350	$1.13	24d	1	0.83mi
751 Staffora St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.88mi
304 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.89mi
308 Pearl St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,999	$1.17	15d	1	0.90mi
660 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,000	$1.08	24d	1	0.90mi
671 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,200	$1.13	11d	1	0.93mi
2528 Absolute Ave Lake Hamilton, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,800	$1.33	24d	1	1.35mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916C Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1727	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	1.41mi
2728 Lookout Ridge Rd Lake Hamilton, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,900	$1.01	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,499 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,499 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,499 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,499 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $364,499 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $364,499 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $364,499 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $364,499 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $364,499 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $364,499 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,499 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $364,499 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $364,499 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $364,499 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $364,499
16. 2026-05-03
    price $364,999
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $393,845 Active
18. 2024-11-13
    soldstatus $840,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,220 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,220 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,418
• − Property taxes: −$4,220
• − Insurance: −$1,822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$10,604
• Taxable loss: −$12,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-56.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $364,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $364,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $393,845 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $840,000 Public Records