337 Smelter Ave · Patagonia, AZ 85624

$227,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1935 3,475 sqft lot Est $431k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The quaint cottage has had a welcoming life as a ''BED NO BREAD'' rental for nearly 20 years. The owner has just recently left the property after 33 years of occupancy. All of the frills and furniture have been left for the new owner. This one of a kind cottage is located in the center of Patagonia Village life. The rental has a very cute and separate entrance and lends itself to privacy with an inviting court yard. There are many conveniences with in walking distance including the post office, the market, the,senior center and The Opera House to name a few. The owner has recently ordered an appraisal of the property and a home inspection report for the property. These documents are available on request.

Key facts

• Separate front entry
• 3,475 sq ft lot
• Built 1935

Tags

• VINTAGE ADOBE COTTAGE
• SEPARATE FRONT ENTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning listed as 'Other - CALL'
• Financial info: Financial details not included
• HOA & community: Historic community; Paved streets and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not specified
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Pre-wired telephone lines
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Adobe, block and stucco construction; Metal roof; Built area approximately 1,512 (building area provided)
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Paver patio; Masonry fencing; Kennel/dog run and shed(s); Flower beds and shrubs; Adjacent to alley; North/South exposure; Paved city-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range and oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not specified
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Ceramic tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall cooling units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Building materials exposed as an interior feature; Skylights; One fireplace with a bee hive insert (gas/wood-burning) in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#56 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Patagonia Union High School District (4462) (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #152 of 249 in AZ (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Patagonia Union High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 79 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,463 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $430,920
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 Smelter Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,512 (0%)	1mo	$222,500	$147	100
310 Duquesne Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,510 (-0%)	15mo	$430,000	$285	84
269 W North Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,396 (-8%)	5mo	$398,815	$286	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $70,146
• Equity at exit: $159,889

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $212,814
• Equity at exit: $306,086

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85624

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,295

Max offer price $194,463

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Contingent
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $227,000 Active
4. 2020-09-11
   soldstatus $170,000 715-char remark

   Show marketing remark (715 chars)

   The quaint cottage has had a welcoming life as a ''BED NO BREAD'' rental for nearly 20 years. The owner has just recently left the property after 33 years of occupancy. All of the frills and furniture have been left for the new owner. This one of a kind cottage is located in the center of Patagonia Village life. The rental has a very cute and separate entrance and lends itself to privacy with an inviting court yard. There are many conveniences with in walking distance including the post office, the market, the,senior center and The Opera House to name a few. The owner has recently ordered an appraisal of the property and a home inspection report for the property. These documents are available on request.

5. 2020-09-11
   soldstatus $170,000

   Show marketing remark (715 chars)

   The quaint cottage has had a welcoming life as a ''BED NO BREAD'' rental for nearly 20 years. The owner has just recently left the property after 33 years of occupancy. All of the frills and furniture have been left for the new owner. This one of a kind cottage is located in the center of Patagonia Village life. The rental has a very cute and separate entrance and lends itself to privacy with an inviting court yard. There are many conveniences with in walking distance including the post office, the market, the,senior center and The Opera House to name a few. The owner has recently ordered an appraisal of the property and a home inspection report for the property. These documents are available on request.

6. 2020-02-28
   listed $189,900 715-char remark

   Show marketing remark (715 chars)

   The quaint cottage has had a welcoming life as a ''BED NO BREAD'' rental for nearly 20 years. The owner has just recently left the property after 33 years of occupancy. All of the frills and furniture have been left for the new owner. This one of a kind cottage is located in the center of Patagonia Village life. The rental has a very cute and separate entrance and lends itself to privacy with an inviting court yard. There are many conveniences with in walking distance including the post office, the market, the,senior center and The Opera House to name a few. The owner has recently ordered an appraisal of the property and a home inspection report for the property. These documents are available on request.

7. 2019-10-25
   historical
8. 2019-06-07
   listed $229,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$282/yr (+$24/mo · 23.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$6,254
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable loss: −$6,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $-768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patagonia Union High School District (4462)
• NCES district ID: 0406030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,115
• Composite: 21.31/100
• National rank: #8381
• State rank: #152 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Patagonia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #9654

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patagonia, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,342

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.17%
• Current HPI: 312.139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-24 Listed $227,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $170,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-02-28 Listed $189,900 MLSSAZ
• 2019-10-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2019-06-07 Listed $229,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.