1040 Maxey Dr · Winter Garden, FL 34787

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1968 6,635 sqft lot Est $296k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some properties check a box. This one opens a door. This 3-bed, 2-bath home in the heart of Winter Garden is more than a place to live. It's a wealth-building opportunity sitting in plain sight. The floor plan sets up beautifully for a duplex conversion: a 1/1 in the front and a 2/1 in the back. Live in one side and let your tenant cover the mortgage, or rent both and start building cash flow from day one. At approximately 1,184 sq ft, the footprint is manageable, the concept is proven, and the location makes it work. You're minutes from historic downtown Winter Garden, major shopping corridors, top dining, and highway access. The kind of address that attracts reliable tenants and holds lon

Key facts

• Highway access
• Reliable tenants
• Long-term value

Tags

• MAJOR SHOPPING CORRIDORS
• HIGHWAY ACCESS
• RELIABLE TENANTS
• LONG-TERM VALUE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential, R-5 zoning
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; High‑speed internet available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Attached property; One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of approximately 0.15 acres
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved lot; Trees and landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $225,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$296,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Winter Garden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#41 in FL, #804 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dillard Street Elementary (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 498 students, 51% FRL); West Orange High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,816 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1581 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $225k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,033 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Dunbar Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,162 (-2%)	1mo	$290,000	$250	70
877 Klondike St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,327 (+12%)	19mo	$320,000	$241	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-25,192
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,870
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34787

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1581
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,671/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
731 Klondike St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	1.0	958	$1,800	$1.88	21d	1	0.30mi
502 Dunbar Ave Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,495	$1.83	14d	1	0.46mi
502 Dunbar Ave Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,495	$1.83	23d	1	0.46mi
216 Jean St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.5	1026	$2,300	$2.24	23d	1	0.58mi
11 E Smith St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$2,900	$3.06	7d	3	0.92mi
314 S Boyd St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,050	$1.94	2d	1	1.04mi
80 Windtree Ln Unit 203 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,650	$1.80	23d	1	1.17mi
119 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	958	$1,695	$1.77	23d	1	1.21mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	21d	1	1.21mi
126 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	17d	1	1.21mi
36 Windtree Ln Unit 202 Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,595	$1.74	14d	1	1.22mi
165 Windtree Ln Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,700	$1.85	23d	1	1.22mi
165 Windtree Ln Unit U Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,750	$1.91	23d	1	1.23mi
100 Maguire Rd Ocoee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,407	$2.50	2d	20	1.29mi
88 Windtree Ln Unit K Winter Garden, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$1,450	$1.58	2d	1	1.29mi
224 W Cypress St Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	17d	1	1.35mi
584 W Bay St Winter Garden, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$2,225	$3.00	2d	8	1.40mi
326 Daniels Pointe Dr Winter Garden, FL	3.0	2.0	1139	$2,150	$1.89	20d	1	1.40mi
508 Varsity St Winter Garden, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,695	$2.17	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $225,000
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-02
    historical
19. 2025-12-19
    price $235,000
20. 2025-12-19
    status Active
21. 2025-11-07
    status Active
22. 2025-10-30
    status Pending
23. 2025-10-10
    status Active
24. 2025-10-10
    price $219,000
25. 2025-10-10
    historical
26. 2025-10-09
    listed $219,000
27. 2025-07-31
    status Pending
28. 2025-07-30
    historical
29. 2025-07-28
    price $209,000
30. 2025-07-22
    price $229,000
31. 2025-07-09
    status Active
32. 2025-06-30
    historical
33. 2025-06-20
    status Active
34. 2025-04-26
    price $239,000
35. 2025-03-19
    price $259,000
36. 2025-02-04
    listed $269,000 Active
37. 2015-05-08
    soldstatus $45,000
38. 2009-10-28
    soldstatus $15,000
39. 2009-08-12
    listed $25,000
40. 2009-06-04
    listed $25,000
41. 2009-06-04
    historical
42. 2009-03-02
    listed $34,000
43. 2005-11-23
    soldstatus $93,000
44. 2003-03-20
    soldstatus $64,000
45. 1968-06-01
    soldstatus $11,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,671
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Garden

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Garden, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 101,441
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 101,441
• Household income: $120,365
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.49%
• Current HPI: 296.8866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1891.2% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-04 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-28 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-12 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-04 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-02 Listed $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1968-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,671 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.